The Philadelphia Phillies had a solid road trip, as they swept their two-game set in Toronto and won the first two games in Miami. However, it ended with a thud after the Marlins took the final two games of the series, including an ugly loss by a score of 10-1 yesterday. The Phillies return home to face the Rays sitting a game behind the Dodgers for the best record in the National League.
Meanwhile, the Rays are on a difficult road trip of their own, taking on pair of playoff contenders in the Orioles and Phillies. However, they took two of three in Baltimore and now enter Philadelphia with momentum. They enter the day five games back of the third AL Wild Card spot.
Tonight, it will be a bullpen game for the Rays with Cole Sulzer listed as the opener. I'll be backing the Phillies with Cristopher Sanchez on the mound. I also expect Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper to provide some run support for him.
Alex Hinton's Rays vs Phillies MLB Parlay Picks for Monday
- Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
- Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Hits (-250)
- Cristopher Sanchez Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-185)
- Phillies Moneyline (-200)
Parlay Odds: +452 (ESPN Bet)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Kyle Schwarber led off the Phillies' road trip with an epic game last Tuesday. He went 5-for-6 with four runs, six runs batted in, and three home runs, including a game-winning three-run shot in the top of the ninth. It was the first of five straight games that he recorded two total bases and he also homered on Wednesday and Friday as well. That streak ended yesterday, but he did extend his hitting streak to seven games with a single yesterday.
Schwarber has not faced Cole Sulzer before and he will only face him once tonight. He has 16 doubles and 23 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season. Should the Rays bring in a left-handed pitcher to face him, Schwarber is usually hitting .319 with 10 homers and a .933 OPS against them.
Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Hits (-250)
Bryce Harper comes into tonight's game with 26 homers on the year, but he is also in the midst of a 26-game home run drought. However, that has not stopped him from reaching base. Over the last 15 days, Harper is hitting .380 with seven doubles, five runs batted in, and .986 OPS. He is also hitting .385 in September.
Harper has a double in two at-bats against Sulzer. Harper is hitting .301 and .913 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. Though, over the last two years, he has been equally formidable against both right and left-handed pitchers.
Harper has recorded a hit in each of his last three games, five of his last six games that he finished, and in 13 of his last 17 games overall. He is hitting .302 at home and .301 in night games. With four at-bats tonight on deck tonight, I like his chances of finding the hit column again.
Cristopher Sanchez Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-185)
It is hard to be more consistent than Cristopher Sanchez has been over the last two seasons. After posting a 3.44 ERA and 3.74 xERA last season, he has a 3.45 ERA and 3.54 xERA this season. However, this season, it has come with Sanchez working deeper into games. Through 27 starts, Sanchez has worked 159 innings this season.
This season, Sanchez has gone six innings in 15-of-27 starts for a solid hit rate, but he has been even more effective at home. He has hit this line in 11-of-14 (78.5%) home starts this season. Of the three misses, one came in his first start of the season in April when pitchers are not really stretched out and he went 5 2/3 innings in the other two.
Sanchez also pitched six innings in Tampa last season when the Rays' offense was more potent. This season, the Rays are 28th in runs scored. They have scored three runs or fewer in four of their last six games.
Phillies Moneyline (-200)
After allowing 19 runs over the last two games, the Phillies' bullpen enters today's game with hardly any gas in the tank. However, Sanchez should provide a remedy tonight. While I like him pitch six innings, he has worked at least seven in five of his last 10 home starts, including two complete games. He is 7-3 with a 2.24 ERA at home this season.
Additionally, despite the two consecutive losses, the Phillies have still won seven of their last 10 games. They are averaging 5.4 runs per game over that span, and five runs will give them a great chance to win tonight with Sanchez on the mound. With a record of 47-25 at Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies are tied for the best home record in the MLB with the Dodgers. With the Phillies also needing to keep pace in the race for home field advantage in the NL, they will be motivated to snap their mini-skid tonight.
