Rays vs Royals Odds & Predictions | July 4 Betting Preview
| Tampa Bay Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-112 | 9 -102o / -118u | -1.5 +142 |
| Kansas City Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-104 | 9 -102o / -118u | +1.5 -170 |
On this loaded Independence Day slate, the Tampa Bay Rays will face off against the Kansas City Royals in the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Rays (43-43) are .500 this season and 11 1/2 games out of the AL East lead entering Thursday. However, they are just four games out of an AL wild-card spot, so they'll be looking to stay in the postseason picture with another win.
Kansas City has been a surprise team this season. After years of losing, the Royals (48-40) hold a wild-card spot and are seven games out of the AL Central lead.
Rays vs Royals odds for Thursday have the Rays as -112 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 9 (-102o/ -118u). You can find my preview and Rays vs Royals prediction on the moneyline below.
Tampa Bay Rays
Zach Eflin will get the start for Tampa Bay. Over 87 1/3 innings this season, he has a 3.92 ERA, but a 3.31 xERA and a 3.79 SIERA. Eflin has done a fantastic job of limiting walks as his 1.9% walk rate ranks in the 99th percentile.
Eflin had seemingly found something in 2023 when his strikeout rate jumped to 26.5% after being 20.8% the year before. However, he's back at 19.1% this season and ranks in the 24th percentile in whiff rate and the 29th percentile in strikeout rate.
Eflin has performed just above league average in terms of quality of contact allowed, ranking in the 51st percentile in barrel rate, the 60th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 53rd percentile in average exit velocity.
Tampa Bay ranks 15th in wRC+ and 21st in wOBA this season. The Rays are just 23rd in SLG and 26th in ISO, with the seventh-highest strikeout rate in baseball. The Rays rank 24th in hard-hit rate, 20th in barrel rate and 27th in average exit velocity.
Kansas City Royals
Alec Marsh will take the mound for the Royals. The 26-year old right hander is in his first full Major League season and has posted a 4.19 ERA with a 4.91 xERA and a 4.12 SIERA.
Marsh ranks 34th in Stuff+ out of 84 pitchers with over 80 innings pitched this season. He ranks in the 38th percentile in whiff rate and the 47th percentile in strikeout rate. Marsh has a 7.4% walk rate, which is just above league average and in the 57th percentile.
Marsh has struggled with his location a little bit and ranks in the 52nd percentile in Location+. As a result, he's in the eighth percentile in average exit velocity allowed, the 19th percentile in barrel rate and the 24th percentile in hard-hit rate.
The Royals rank 19th in wRC+ and 15th in wOBA this season. They are 11th in both SLG and ISO as they hit for decent power, but are just 24th in walk rate. Kansas City strikes out just 19.2% of the time, which is the third-lowest mark in MLB.
This year, Kansas City ranks 10th in hard-hit rate, 12th in barrel rate and fifth in average exit velocity. The Royals hit the highest rate of fly balls (41.3%), but Kauffman Stadium is notoriously hard to homer in, despite having a positive park factor in every other facet.
Rays vs. Royals
Betting Pick & Prediction
Marsh’s struggles have largely come from allowing hard contact. Luckily for him, he will be facing a Rays team that doesn’t hit the ball very hard and also has plenty of swing. I think that things could line up well for Marsh to put together a quality start.
On the other side, I believe Eflin to be an above average starting pitcher. He hardly walks anyone and I don’t look for that to change against the impatient Royals. He hasn’t had difficulties in terms of allowing quality contact, but the Royals put plenty of balls in play and often hit them hard.
I think the Royals’ offense gives them the edge in what could be a close game. These two bullpens have also been relative equals all season, so I'm happy to take Kansas City as home underdogs on Thursday night.
Pick: Royals Moneyline (+114) | Bet to +108 |
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