Rays vs. Yankees Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -142 | 8 -114/ -106 | -1.5 +115 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 8 -114/ -106 | +1.5 -138 |
The American League East is the best division in baseball thus far. None of the teams are under .500 while the Tampa Bay Rays boast the best record in MLB.
They continue their series against the New York Yankees on Saturday. Though they're last in the AL East, the Yanks are still a good baseball team.
The starting pitching matchup is a good one as Shane McClanahan squares off with Nestor Cortes Jr. McClanahan has had a Cy Young-caliber start to 2023; Cortes has taken a step back, although his peripherals are indicative of forthcoming success.
Outside of the bullpen, the Yankees have no edges in this game, so taking McClanahan and the Rays slightly juiced is a good deal. Continue reading for my Rays vs. Yankees preview and explanation of my betting pick.
Tampa Bay Rays
McClanahan owns a 1.76 ERA against a 2.85 xERA. He ranks in the 59th percentile in Average Exit Velocity, but this does not tell the entire story, as he ranks in the 72nd in Hard Hit Rate. He is even better in other metrics with a 94th percentile Whiff Rate, 91st percentile Chase Rate and an xwOBA of .266. He is clearly the better starter in this game.
The Rays are crushing left-handed pitching right now. They only have a 6.5% walk rate, but they have a .930 OPS and a 159 wRC+ off southpaws this season. The next closest team is the Atlanta Braves (146 wRC+). Tampa Bay has seven hitters above a .370 xwOBA off lefties, so it could potentially force early inning issues for Cortes.
The bullpen, a strong suit for the Rays in recent years, has been the only facet of the game giving them any issues. They have a team xFIP of 4.79 and are only striking out 18.7% of batters. They have a 75%+ LOB percentage, so this helps. However, this is one area New York owns a slight advantage.
New York Yankees
Cortes is still an incredibly reliable arm in the Yankees rotation. He has a 4.74 ERA, but his xERA is 3.48 and much more in line with what fans have grown accustomed to in recent seasons.
He ranks in the middle of the pack in Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate. His xwOBA is sub-.295, and his walk rate is still below 7%. That said, nothing jumps off of the page when comparing his profile to McClanahan’s.
Against lefties, New York is above average with a 107 wRC+ and a 12.1% walk rate. Its team OPS is below .750, though. The Yanks have five active hitters above a .350 xwOBA. Oswald Peraza, Josh Donaldson and Giancarlo Stanton are all on the injured list, so this does not help their case with McClanahan toeing the rubber.
New York's bullpen has had more success than Tampa Bay's. The Yankees have a 4.04 xFIP with a LOB percentage at nearly 80%. They are walking more than 10.5% of hitters, but they have four arms under a 4.00 xFIP, which should provide artillery on the back of Cortes.
Rays vs. Yankees Betting Pick
McClanahan vs. Cortes is the story here.
While Cortes should bounce back to his typical form, the Yankees have too many key injuries that will hinder their lineup’s success. They need all hands on deck to take down a Cy Young-caliber arm like McClanahan, and they simply do not at the moment.
The Rays have crushed lefty pitching, whereas the Yankees sometimes do not show up when needed. Take Tampa Bay at -135, and play them to -155.
The Rays are the better team, even if their bullpen has had troubles. They could probably build their lead early and hang onto it with McClanahan pitching deep into the game.
Pick: Rays ML (-130 | Play to -155) |
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