Rays vs Yankees Odds
| Tampa Bay Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+105 | 9 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -190 |
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-125 | 9 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +155 |
The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees continue their three-game series on Saturday at Yankee Stadium. New York took the series opener, riding a five-run seventh inning — which featured a three-run home run by Juan Soto — to victory.
Rays vs Yankees odds have the Yankees listed as -125 favorites on the moneyline; the over/under has ticked up from 8.5 to 9 runs as first pitch nears.
Saturday's scheduled starting pitchers, Zach Eflin and Nestor Cortes, have both had some sour early season results. Eflin, however, was much more encouraging in his last start against the Los Angeles Angels, throwing 6 1/3 innings of shutout ball with five strikeouts and no walks. Cortes was a bit shaky against the Cleveland Guardians — allowing four runs in four innings — and has been unable to keep the ball on the ground this season.
Find my Rays vs Yankees moneyline pick for Saturday in my MLB betting preview below.
Tampa Bay Rays
Eflin was elite in 2023 and showed flashes of that ability in his last start, notching five strikeouts in six shutout innings. His walk rate is still exceptionally low (2%), so his xERA is below 4.00, despite some hard contact.
That said, even in years aside from 2023, Eflin was able to limit hard contact. Last season’s strikeout total could've been an outlier, but he's poised to improve in the next month.
The Rays have fared decently against left-handed pitchers this season (104 wRC+) — they have five bats above a .320 xwOBA. Yandy Díaz and Harold Ramírez should come alive eventually. Díaz was an MVP contender in 2023, so he won't fall off that quickly.
Simply put, the Rays have the bats and experience to string together some runs early against Cortes.
Like it did in 2023, Tampa Bay’s relief staff has struggled early in the season. The unit started to figure it out down the stretch last season, though.
Pete Fairbanks is usually the most reliable relief arm for the Rays, and he's been uncharacteristically bad this year. Shawn Armstrong and Garrett Cleavinger both have an xFIP below 4.00, so the Rays should have enough after Eflin, who doesn't throw too many pitches.
New York Yankees
Like Eflin, Cortes doesn't walk many hitters. His issue this season has been keeping the ball on the ground as he ranks in the ninth percentile in ground-ball rate. This had led to three homers in four starts.
His Average Exit Velocity allowed is almost 90 mph, which is similar to 2023 when he ended up with a 4.97 ERA. His Hard Hit Rate is back to 2022 levels, but there are a couple of areas of concern at the moment despite a nice start against an awful Marlins lineup.
The Yankees have had better collective results against righties than the Rays have had against lefties. However, that 120 wRC+ doesn't tell the whole story.
Yes, the Yanks have a sub-20% strikeout rate and a 12.1% walk rate off righties this year, but they only have one more bat with a .320+ xwOBA on the roster. Austin Wells is included in that, but he's only caught two of Cortes’ starts.
Basically, the Rays and Yankees could have similar lineups in Saturday’s game, especially if Díaz and Ramírez hit like they have in the past.
The Yankees' relief staff owns a 4.66 xFIP, with a 17.9% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate. They have three active arms below the 4.00 mark, but this is comparable to the Rays.
Neither bullpen is very strong.
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Rays vs. Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Rays have value as underdogs. Eflin is a better pitcher than Cortes. Both bullpens are questionable, but the Rays' lineup (against lefties) can contend with New York’s.
Given the fact that Tampa Bay is the underdog here, it can be taken to -115. Though this is a road game, if the Rays get to the Yankees' relievers early, they're in good shape.
Pick: Rays Moneyline +116 (Play to -115)
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