Red Sox vs Twins Odds
| Boston Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+102 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | +1.5 -205 |
| Minnesota Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-122 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | -1.5 +170 |
The latest Red Sox vs Twins odds for the series opener on Friday at Target Field have the Red Sox as +102 underdogs on the moneyline, with an over/under of 7.5. My Red Sox vs Twins prediction targets a different market: the first five (F5) innings moneyline.
Twins starter Chris Paddack owns 5.89 ERA in 26 innings and will look to keep Minnesota's 10-game winning streak alive in Friday's matchup. This is a far tougher matchup than the Twins have had during their winning streak, though, as they face Tanner Houck and the Red Sox.
Houck has surprised with a dominant 1.60 ERA and he is loosely in the American League Cy Young Award conversation (+2800) as a result. The Red Sox are 11-6 on the road and are right in the thick of a crowded AL East race.
Where does the betting value lie here? Find out in my MLB betting preview, which includes my Red Sox vs Twins pick.
Boston Red Sox
Houck owns the 12th-shortest odds in the A.L. Cy Young race, according to bet365.
His underlying profile suggests that number might even hold a touch of value despite the fact that it's pretty tough to imagine him closing it out.
Houck has pitched to an xFIP of 2.58 and an xERA of 3.03 while allowing a WHIP of just 0.92. He has pitched to a Stuff+ rating of 108 and owns a Pitching+ rating of 109.
His stuff rates out very well, and he has done a great job commanding the strike zone with all four pitches. He has walked just five of the 155 batters he has faced this season (2.3 BB%) and has allowed three-ball counts only 10% of the time.
Like the adjustments made by many Red Sox pitchers this season, Houck has upped the usage of his slider and has essentially ditched his four-seamer entirely. He has thrown off-speed pitches 74% of the time with two strikes this season.
Since 2022 batters are hitting just .085 on Houck's low sliders and curveballs.
The Red Sox boast a wRC+ of 105 this season. Over the last 14 days, they've put up a wRC+ of 133 with the league's third-best OPS at .832. They have hit slightly better against right-handed pitchers this season with a wRC+ of 107.
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Minnesota Twins
Paddack should be able to improve on his 5.89 ERA moving forward, but it still seems clear that the 28-year-old is far from what he once was.
He owns a 4.20 xFIP and 5.52 xERA entering this matchup, and his K/BB ratio of 3.50 is currently the worst mark of his big-league career.
However, he has pitched to a Stuff+ mark of 95, and a Pitching+ of 104, which suggests he should find more success moving forward.
Unlike Houck, Paddack's non-fastballs are getting crushed. He has allowed a combined slugging percentage of .623 on his curveball, changeup and slider this season. He has allowed a hard-hit rate of 47% in two-strike counts, which is the 10th-highest mark in MLB among pitchers who have thrown over 11 innings.
Despite the absence of Byron Buxton, the Twins offense enters this game in strong form, which is fairly obvious given their 10-game win streak. They've put up a wRC+ mark of 148 over the last 14 days, which is the best in baseball.
Although, that mark came in three straight series against the two worst teams in the A.L.
Red Sox vs Twins
Betting Pick & Prediction
Houck has been one of the better pitchers in the A.L. this season, and his underlying process indicates that he should remain one of the better pitchers in baseball moving forward.
Meanwhile, Paddack is pitching better than his 5.89 ERA suggests, but it's still clear that Houck is the superior starter in this game.
Win streak aside, both offenses have put up comparable results over the last 14 days and over the entirety of the season. It's also important to note that all 10 games of the Twins' win streak came against the White Sox and Angels.
While it's probably not a trend that will continue over the entire season, the Red Sox have achieved far better results on the road, where they sit 11-5. The Twins, meanwhile, are 6-6 at home.
With both offenses in comparable form, no perceived home-field advantage and the fact that Houck offers a starting pitching edge, the Red Sox deserve to be larger favorites to win the first five innings.
The Red Sox are worth a bet to win the first five at -120 or better.
Pick: Red Sox F5 ML -115 (Play to -120)
