Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 8.5 -122 / +100 | +1.5 -182 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -130 | 8.5 -122 / +100 | -1.5 +150 |
Saturday will offer another chapter in baseball's greatest rivalry, as Domingo German and the Yankees take on Tanner Houck and the Red Sox.
Houck has pitched to a 5.46 ERA in 57.2 innings this season and has struggled, in particular, outside of the month of April. He's a slight underdog versus German, who's been in dominant form since a rough start to the season.
See how I think the middle game of this Red Sox vs. Yankees series plays out in my preview below, which includes a pick on the moneyline.
Boston Red Sox
Often hidden by some horrific pitching is the fact that the Red Sox's results at the plate have been quite strong. They have hit to an eighth-best wRC+ of 106 and have generated 4.98 runs per game.
The Red Sox have had a quiet start to June offensively, playing to a .318 wOBA and 93 wRC+. However, they have faced two strong pitching staffs in the Guardians and Rays and own a middling BABIP of .290.
They should be a top-10 side versus RHP the rest of the way and playing at full strength will make for a tough matchup for German.
Houck put up a 6.08 ERA in May and has started June poorly, allowing four earned runs in five innings versus Tampa.
For a number of reasons, it now seems like a decent time to buy low on Houck. His stuff+ rating is right at league average and his Location+ is considerably better than league average.
Those numbers make you wonder how he's allowing a lowly ERA of 5.46, and the actual contact rates agree. His xERA is strong at 3.85 and his xFIP is 3.72. He owns a strand rate of only 61% and at some point, he should run better on that front.
It's also interesting to note that Houck has consistently faced tougher than average teams. He's faced teams averaging 11.7th-place in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching in his starts.
Pitching half the time at Fenway also hasn't helped anything.
New York Yankees
Across the 2023 season, the Yankees have hit to a 13th-best wRC+ of 100, with a wOBA of .313 versus right-handed pitching. Take away their most potent batter in Aaron Judge, and suddenly it becomes fair to say they're a middle of the pack target for Houck.
German has been dominant, with 3.69 ERA, a number that's trended downwards with each passing start.
His .199 BABIP is the third-lowest rate among pitchers to have thrown over 24 innings and is significantly below his expected rate of .264. His xERA is 4.19 and his xFIP is 4.03. Those marks state some overachievement, and his Stuff+ rating of 95 also agrees.
By no means has German been simply lucky, but it does appear he's not as entirely dominant as his recent outings suggest.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Betting Pick
Boston's current lineup actually provides a pretty sound edge at the plate over the Yankees, specifically with Judge out of the picture.
Starting pitching has been the flaw for the Red Sox this season, but that shouldn't be the case Saturday, as Houck and German should be comparable the rest of the way.
Boston is not worthy of an underdog tag in this matchup, and I believe betting the Red Sox at anything better than +100 is a solid play.
Pick: Red Sox +104 |
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