Reds vs. Braves Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+235 | 7.5 -114 / +106 | +1.5 +104 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -290 | 7.5 -114 / +106 | -1.5 -125 |
Two of the leagues most exciting young pitchers will battle Wednesday as Spencer Strider and the Braves host Hunter Greene and the Reds.
Strider has found far more success at the MLB level thus far — including a 2022 NL ROY runner-up — and is priced as a -275 favorite to lead the Braves to victory on Wednesday.
Greene does hold sky-high potential with his seemingly unmatched stuff, but has continued to falter, allowing lots of home runs and blowup innings while pitching to an ERA of 5.63 in two 2023 starts.
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati entered the season with a win total of just 65.5, but has offered some surprisingly reasonable form thus far. It could potentially become somewhat of an overachieving side based upon improved offensive play and a couple of talented young pitchers.
The Reds have hit to an 18th-best wRC+ of 99 and have generated 4.50 runs per game to begin this season. It has a 17th-ranked .313 xwOBA.
All of those marks are clear comments that the Reds may not be as entirely poor offensively as preseason expectations suggested.
Rookie Spencer Steer breaking through with a productive campaign is certainly one reason the Reds could overachieve. He has displayed a strong process at the plate en route to a .365 xwOBA in his initial 40 ABs.
Greene's first two starts of the season really summarize his typical MLB form thus far — at times in each matchup he has looked entirely untouchable, but he ultimately finished with relatively sub-par stat lines.
Greene has pitched to an xERA of 4.54 to start the season, which is a full run better than his actual mark but likely still somewhat of a disappointment considering the way his outings actually went.
He has struck out 32.5% of batters and has, at times, looked untouchable with his 99 MPH fastball backed up by an elite slider, which rates very well.
Atlanta Braves
For a far more polished version of a strikeout pitcher, we can look to Strider, who has followed up his incredible 2022 campaign with a strong start to the season (ERA of 2.46).
His xERA of 3.87 is down significantly from a season ago, and he is allowing a lot more hard contact with a .357 xSLG rate. Both his fastball and slider velocity are down, but in a two-game sample, none of those numbers should be overly alarming by any means.
Atlanta has hit to a wRC+ of 108 so far this season, with an elite xwOBA of .368, which suggests it could even trend up to an extent in time.
There's nothing to be concerned about from the Braves offensively, and it should remain elite on that front.
With most of the same key pieces driving the roster, Atlanta will likely hold comparable splits to what we saw last season. In 2022, the Braves did have far more favorable numbers versus right-handed pitching than lefties.
Reds vs. Braves Betting Pick
Greene has the stuff to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, if he can find ways to crackdown on the blowup innings and lessen the amount of hard contact allowed.
Overall, I think he has had a more positive start than some of his numbers suggest, and there is still a lot of reasons to be excited about his potential this season.
He should continue to be an extremely volatile option, where the good innings and outings look incredible compared to the times where command of his electric stuff is just entirely lost and he falls apart.
With the Reds priced as gigantic underdogs to steal the first five innings, I think this is a good spot to target a good day from Greene.
He gets an extremely tough matchup versus Strider and the Braves, but the potential is there for this to become a more closely fought first few innings than that lofty number suggests. Plus, scratching across a run or two could be enough if Greene is in top form.
The first five under appears to be another strong look and is my second favorite play, but -135 for under 4.5 is a slightly worse number than I would like.
Part of the key to this holding some value is that the Reds have been surprisingly solid offensively and seem likely to overachieve expectations on that front based upon its current results, which have come with a steady underlying process.
