Reds vs Braves Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+135 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -160 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-160 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +135 |
The Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves start a three-game series at Truist Park on Monday.
Both the Reds and Braves are in the thick of the NL wild-card race — but they're trending in different directions.
After a tough weekend series against Washington, it’s now reported that Cincinnati will sell at the trade deadline. In a muddled NL wild-card race, the Reds are four games out of the last spot entering Monday, with several teams still in the mix. Sitting in last place in the NL Central — 10 1/2 games back from the Milwaukee Brewers — it seems like the clock is ticking on the 2024 Reds.
On the other hand, the Braves are in a better position with their postseason hopes. They are 8 1/2 games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead, but they have a four-game lead for the top wild-card spot.
MLB odds for Monday night have the Braves as -160 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 7.5 (+100 / -120u) for the potential pitchers' duel between NL All-Stars Hunter Green of Cincinnati and Reynaldo Lopez of Atlanta.
Let’s dive into my preview for Reds vs Braves on Monday, July 22.
Cincinnati Reds
Hunter Greene is having the best season of his Major League career. Through 110 1/3 innings pitched, he has a 3.34 ERA, a 3.09 xERA, and a 3.81 SIERA with a whopping 126 strikeouts.
Greene’s stuff is nasty. He has the best Stuff+ mark in baseball among qualified pitchers, helping him rank above the 80th percentile of qualified pitchers in whiff rate and strikeout rate. Command is still an issue for him, as he ranks 62nd out of 72 qualified pitchers in Location+ and in the 26th percentile in walk rate.
Greene’s big improvement this season has been limiting hard contact. He ranks in the 82nd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, 86th percentile in barrel atea allowed, and 80th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. Prior to this season, he had never ranked higher than the 30th percentile in any of these categories.
The Reds’ offense has been well below average this season, ranking 26th in wRC+ and 18th in wOBA. They rank 14th in walk rate but strike out the fifth-most in Major League Baseball. Cincinnati also ranks 10th in ISO and 17th in SLG, but 27th in batting average and 26th in BABIP. They also lead the league in steals to this point in the season with 139.
Cincinnati ranks 28th in hard-hit rate, 20th in barrel rate, and 30th in exit velocity. They pull the ball at the second highest rate in the Majors, which has likely helped some of their power numbers despite lacking consistent quality contact.
Atlanta Braves
Reynaldo Lopez is putting up insane numbers this season. He doesn’t have enough innings to qualify for the official league lead, but his 1.88 ERA is a half point better than any other pitcher with 90-plus innings.
His results have been good, but things aren’t as rosy when looking at Lopez’s peripheral numbers. He has a 4.23 xERA and a 3.96 SIERA. Lopez has been fortunate with keeping runners on base, as he has an 86.9% strand rate compared to his career average of 73%.
Lopez ranks in the 57th percentile in whiff rate and 66th percentile in strikeout rate. He ranks 52nd out of 88 pitchers in Stuff+ and 42nd in Location+.
Lopez has been below average by batted ball metrics this season as well. He ranks in the 38th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, 33rd percentile in barrel rate allowed, and 30th percentile in exit velocity allowed. Typically, when you see a pitcher getting hit hard but still succeeding, it’s because they induce a lot of grounders, but he ranks in just the 26th percentile in ground-ball rate.
Atlanta ranks 17th in wRC+ and 13th in wOBA this season. They are 10th in SLG, seventh in ISO, and 24th in OBP. The Braves strike out at the eighth-highest rate and walk at the sixth-lowest rate in baseball.
Despite their poor plate discipline, the Braves hit the ball hard. They rank first in hard-hit rate, second in barrel rate, and first in average exit velocity. They pull the ball at the highest rate in the Majors while ranking 10th in fly ball rate, helping them convert these hard-hit balls into power. This has led to them having the best xwOBACON and seventh-best xwOBA.
Reds vs. Braves
Betting Pick & Prediction
Lopez’s season makes for a great story, but I don’t think his ERA will remain this low going forward. He has pitched more like a four-ERA pitcher this season, and I don’t see anything in his numbers to suggest that he can keep this up.
Greene has a tough matchup today, as the Braves hit the ball harder than almost anyone. However, I think his ability to strike out batters will also come into play against this swing-happy Atlanta team.
I think Greene is the better pitcher and has an excellent chance to put up a ton of strikeouts tonight.
Pick: Reds F5 ML (+120, bet365)
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