Reds vs Cardinals Odds & Saturday Spread Prediction
| Cincinnati Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 8 -110o / -110u | +164 |
| St. Louis Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 8 -110o / -110u | -198 |
The NL Central rivalry series between the Reds and Cardinals continues on Saturday afternoon at Busch Stadium. The series is currently split a game apiece heading into Saturday, when Carson Spiers of the Reds takes on Cardinals ace Sonny Gray.
Gray has been dominant over his last three outings, allowing just four runs on 10 hits and three walks over 21 2/3 innings.
Reds vs Cardinals odds have the Cardinals has -198 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8 (-110o / -110u). With a heavy advantage on the mound will the Cardinals roll to victory? Find my Reds vs Cardinals Saturday spread prediction below.
Cincinnati Reds
After battling for a playoff spot for much of last year, the Reds find themselves more in hunt of a top five draft choice rather than a playoff spot. The Reds have the national league’s fourth worst winning percentage — only behind the Rockies, Marlins and Cubs.
Their offense regressed from last year, where they seemingly played above their true talent level. Right now, the Reds own a below-average 90 wRC+. However, things seem to be trending upwards.
This month, Jonathan India (181 wRC+), Jeimer Candelario (147) and Elly De La Cruz (144) Candelario went deep eight times in June and De La Cruz is always a threat with his speed and power combination.
While the Cardinals hand the ball to an experienced starter, the Reds’ Carson Spiers will make his third career start.
Spiers pitched in seven games this year, five in a long-relief role and the past two in the rotation. He allowed 14 hits and seven runs in 12 innings in two games against the Pirates.
Through his first two starts, Spiers has looked hittable, but the damage is usually limited thanks to his strike throwing ability. He doesn’t allow free passes — ranking in the 93rd percentile in walk rate.
Even if Spiers allows three or four runs it might be enough for the Cardinals behind Sonny Gray. In another matchup I’d possibly look to back Spiers since his FIP (2.33) is a full run lower than his ERA (3.45.)
This game represents a huge test for Spiers.
St. Louis Cardinals
Though some thought manager Oli Marmol could be in danger of losing his job, the Cardinals vote confidence — in the form of a contract extension seems to be paying off.
Entering Saturday, the Cardinals are only behind the Brewers in the N.L. Central standings and have a real chance to snag a wild card spot. One of the prime reasons for the Cardinals success is pitching.
Gray may be getting long in the tooth as they say, but he’s amongst the best pitchers in baseball. At 34 years old, he's putting together arguably his best season — posting a 2.81 ERA and 2.60 FIP with an outstanding 11.1 K/9.
Gray ranks in the 93rd percentile in K-rate and 82nd percentile in xBA. He’s exceptional and the clear best pitcher in this matchup.
The Cardinals offense is scarier against right-handed pitching, as most of the lineup is better against righties. We saw a southpaw, Andrew Abbott allow just two runs in game one of this series.
Putting a lefty in neutralizes two of the Cardinals best hitters — Alec Burleson and Brendan Donovan. Burleson (154 wRC+ vs righties) and Donovan (127 wRC+) are two of the Cardinals lineup stalwarts. Both also feature outstanding bat to ball skills — ranking on the 90th percentile in K-rate. The ideal top of the order bats next to Masyn Winn.
Those two along with Winn set the tone for the lineup, while elder statesmen, Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt continue to underperform.
The most concerning part of Goldschmidt’s game is his random swing-and-miss issues. He’s never struck out more than 25% of the time and now Goldschmidt is punching out 29% of the time. Additionally, his 92 wRC+ and Arenado’s 97 wRC+ aren’t good enough for middle-of-the-order bats, but they are both capable of having a good game.
Reds vs. Cardinals
Betting Pick & Prediction
Unsurprisingly, the Cardinals are heavy favorites at home with Gray on the mound. They’ll be favorites in most games Gray starts anyways, but only -170 on the ML is a bit surprising.
I planned on playing the run line at about -105 before the line dropped, so I’m jubilant about taking plus money.
Gray has started 14 games this year, and the Cardinals won seven by multiple runs. So, if the alt run line for each game started by Gray were -1.5, then they’d cover 50% of the time. It could go over 50% with a win here at plus money.
