The Cincinnati Reds opened up a three-game set at Wrigley Field with a dramatic win on Friday afternoon. The Reds scored a couple of late runs, but it was the heroics of Elly De La Cruz's perfect strike to home plate to prevent the tying run from scoring that saved the day.
The Cubs look to rebound on Saturday night with Justin Steele on the mound. Steele is still in the process of working himself back from an early season injury, but he is a critical part of the Cubs rotation.
Meanwhile, flamethrower Hunter Greene gets the nod for the Reds, as many perceive that it should be a terrific pitching matchup. I was able to dig up some value and put together a nice three-leg SGP for tonight's ballgame.
We were so close on Thursday evening to hitting one of these, but Zac Gallen left the start after six pitches due to a leg injury.
Here's my Reds vs Cubs MLB Parlay: Saturday SGP Picks.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Reds vs Cubs Same Game Parlay
- Hunter Greene Over 6.5 Ks (-120)
- Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145)
- Spencer Steer Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
- Parlay Odds: +876 (FanDuel)
Hunter Greene Over 6.5 Ks (-120)
Greene is having a solid season for the Red Machine, and now he gets to face a familiar foe. The Cubbies are hitting .256 lifetime in 43 ABs against him, but they have whiffed 12 times in that span.
Greene is averaging nearly 10K/9 on the season, and his control has begun to improve. He is still not at the efficiency consistently, as he is struggling to put away hitters in early counts.
However, the Cubs are bottom-10 in strikeouts per game, and I could see a scenario where they rack up a ton of whiffs tonight. Freddy Peralta just struck out 11 of these same Cubs hitters on Tuesday, and Greene has just as good an arsenal in my opinion.
Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Tyler Stephenson is coming off a two-hit day on Friday afternoon, and now he gets an opportunity against left-hander Justin Steele. I was stunned to find out that Stephenson is 7-10 lifetime against Steele, and the current market price suggests there is no chance he clears 1.5 total bases.
I beg to differ, as the low total for the game is why some of these hitter props are inflated. 10 ABs is a small sample size, but Stephenson has completely owned Steele.
I like the fact that the Reds are the road team, which guarantees them extra at-bats even if they have a lead late. Stephenson has a decent chance to get four ABs, and all we need is a double or better.
Stephenson is 5-30 over the last two weeks, so yesterday could be a sign he will start to heat up. +145 is far too lucrative to pass up given his track record against Steele.
Spencer Steer Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Just like Stephenson, Steer has excellent numbers against Steele. Steer is 3-for-6 with a HR against Steele, so despite the small sample size it is hard not to like those results.
Steer is hitting .175 against lefties thus far, which is definitely unsustainable considering he is a right-handed hitter. Steele is also giving up more fly balls and a higher barrel rate to hitters compared to the past, which makes me believe the Reds have a good chance of tacking on some runs on the board.
Steer is hitting .219 on the year, but that is bound to turn around sooner rather than later. He is hitting the ball hard just as consistently as last year and his walk rate is higher than last season.
His strikeout numbers are down also, so it's apparent that he is seeing the ball clearly at the plate. I'll happily snag the +130 and hope to see Steer taking advantage against Steele.
