Reds vs. Rockies Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -102 | 11.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +134 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -116 | 11.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -162 |
It is clear that both of these teams are in rebuild mode. The Reds have openly admitted that, and Colorado hasn’t done much to convince people otherwise. Each club sits in the bottom five of the National League standings, and the bottom eight of the league overall.
But the beauty of gambling is that just because a game might appear like a snoozer in the standings, money can still be made. So what's the betting angle in this matchup? I’ll break down my pick for Cincinnati vs. Colorado below.
Cincinnati Reds
Things have gone a bit better for Graham Ashcraft in his sophomore campaign as he's lowered his ERA from 4.89 to 3.95 through his first eight starts of 2023. In reality, he's been even better than that number, as one nightmare start against the White Sox ballooned his numbers. If we take out that game, he has a 2.38 ERA.
Ashcraft has really good stuff, led by his cutter. He throws it 96 mph and mixes it with a slider. He throws those two pitches 92.5% of the time. He's also been especially effective against left-handed hitters, who are hitting just .156 against him.
Graham Ashcraft, Stupid 101mph Cutter. 🥴 pic.twitter.com/A4Hdc5FdEb
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 24, 2022
The rebuilding Reds have struggled to generate consistent offense. This team ranks in the bottom five in wRC+ and in the bottom 10 in wOBA. Only three teams have hit fewer home runs than Cincinnati.
While the Reds don’t have many big names, former Rookie of the Year Jonathan India is having a bounce-back campaign, and T.J. Friedl and Jake Fraley have also been solid. Although Friedl is currently on the Injured List.
Colorado Rockies
The 6-foot-5 Austin Gomber has a dominating presence, but has progressively become less intimidating with each season. His 4.53 ERA in 2021 turned into a 5.56 ERA in 2022 and is up to 6.30 through eight starts this season. His 6.45 xERA is even more concerning.
Gomber ranks in the bottom 10% of the league in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA and xERA. His fastball has been crushed to a .398 xBA and a 59.2% hard-hit rate. He throws his fastball 43% of the time and it averages just 90.7 mph with very little movement.
Despite having the advantage of playing half their games in Colorado, the Rockies rank just 29th in wRC+ and 25th in home runs.
Colorado's top bats have all disappointed this season as Randal Grichuk is the only player with a wRC+ above 115.
Reds vs. Rockies Betting Pick
The Reds aren't a very good team, but they do have a few redeeming pieces. In this particular matchup, I give the Reds a sizeable advantage in terms of starting pitchers. Ashcraft has an ERA nearly half of Gomber's.
Ashcraft has much more upside and his most used pitch is a nasty cutter. Gomber’s most used pitch is a fastball that has been crushed by opponents, and th Reds rank seventh in the league against fastballs.
Cincinnati has an advantage in the bullpen with a top-10 reliever ERA, compared to Colorado’s 'pen, which ranks in the bottom half. The Reds likely have the edge at the plate as well as they top the Rockies in wRC+.
Home-field advantage doesn’t mean much for Colorado as the Rockies have just as many wins at Coors Field as on the road. These teams split the first two games of the series, and I think Cincinnati's pitching advantage give Reds the edge to come away with the series win in the rubber match.
Back the Reds on Wednesday afternoon and play them to -110.
Pick: Reds Moneyline |
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