Reds vs. Tigers Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 9 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +134 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+102 | 9 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -162 |
Cincinnati's Brandon Williamson has made some strides in the second half, but will have to face a relatively decent lineup — at least against left-handed pitching — in the Detroit Tigers. Meanwhile, the Tigers will throw Joey Wentz.
Wentz has been incredibly volatile in the majors and hasn't shown enough to be a mainstay in the Tigers’ rotation.
Williamson has also had a couple hiccups in his past few starts, so let's that the over in this game.
Cincinnati Reds
Williamson has a 4.20 ERA against a 4.78 xERA. His Barrel Rate is 8.3%, his Average Exit Velocity is 90.1 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is 41.3%. In August, he carried a 3.67 ERA over 34 1/3 innings, largely a result of limiting walks. However, he has a 36.8% ground-ball rate, so teams can elevate and hit the ball far when needed.
The Reds have a 92 wRC+, a 10.8% walk rate, a 25.2% strikeout rate and a .708 OPS against lefties over the past month. However, in the past two weeks, they have a 124 wRC+, a 11.5% walk rate, a 19.2% strikeout rate and a .833 OPS off of southpaws. They have made some notable strides and also have eight hitters with an xwOBA over .320 in that timeframe.
But in relief, the Reds have struggled. They have a 5.57 xFIP with a 9.6% walk rate and a 18.4% strikeout rate in the past two weeks. Cincinnati only has two relievers with an xFIP under 4.00 in that timeframe, so the Tigers should be able to score in the late innings.
Detroit Tigers
Wentz, like Williamson, has a ton of potential. However, he hasn't unlocked it yet. He has a 6.65 ERA and a 5.76 xERA. His Barrel Rate is 11.5% with an Average Exit Velocity of 90.1 mph and a Hard-Hit Rate of 43.4%. Wentz’s ground-ball rate is 35.9% and he's allowed 13 runs in 14 1/3 innings over his past four appearances. Yes, eight of those runs took place in one start, but it's still a concerning stat.
The Tigers have also done well against lefties. They have a 106 wRC+, a 9.6% walk rate, a 24% strikeout rate and a .743 OPS off of southpaws in the past month. In the past two weeks, they've elevated their wRC+ to 137 with a .869 OPS. Like the Reds, the Tigers have several betters with an xwOBA over .320 and should be able to score some runs off Williamson.
In relief, Detroit has a 4.03 xFIP with a 25% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate over the past two weeks.
Reds vs. Tigers
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Reds and Tigers both have powerful enough lineups to take down to these left-handed starters. Williamson has been more impressive than Wentz lately, but neither has shown the consistency needed to be in the rotation long-term. With that being the case, the over can be taken to 9.5 (-125) as runs should be aplenty.
