The Atlanta Braves have continued their winning ways to cling to the third Wild Card spot in the National League. On Thursday, they go for the sweep against the Colorado Rockies. It'll be Southpaw Austin Gomber on the mound for the Rockies, and he'll be opposed to Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez enters the start with a 2.00 ERA, and it's been the best season of his career.
I compiled a 3-leg SGP for tonight's game, which pays out +653 odds. We are coming off hitting a nice +1400 SGP, so let's get into my Rockies vs Braves MLB parlay picks.
John Feltman's Rockies vs Braves MLB Parlay Picks
- Jorge Soler Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
- Reynaldo Lopez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-152)
- Alternate First Five Innings Over 5.5 (+162)
Parlay Odds: +653 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Jorge Soler Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Soler has been starting to hit the ball hard again lately, and tonight, he draws an incredible matchup against Austin Gomber. Gomber is among the worst starting pitchers in baseball and is simply an innings-eater at this point in his career.
Soler has excellent numbers against Gomber, going 3-for-8 lifetime with multiple extra-base hits. His batting average averages about .20 points against lefties, as he's always been a southpaw masher.
Gomber's arsenal fits the profile where he'll set up Soler for successful at-bats, and there is no reason to think he will not struggle here. Many say Gomber has no chance of success because he pitches at Coors Field, but he's pitched worse on the road with a 4.89 ERA.
Right-handers have always given him a hard time, so I expect Soler to strike up at least one extra-base hit tonight. If he fails against Gomber, he'll have the Rockies league-worst bullpen waiting for him in the wings.
Reynaldo Lopez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-152)
It's been a remarkable year for Lopez, and now he is drawing an excellent matchup against the Rockies. The Rockies are second-to-last in the MLB in team strikeouts per game, and their offense has been woefully inadequate for most of the season.
Lopez's turnaround is nothing short of extraordinary, and it's because of his ability to generate whiffs and chases. His whiff and chase rate ranks above the 60th percentile.
Lopez should not have a 2.00 ERA because he gets struck too often, but that should not factor into him racking up punch-outs tonight. His elevated fastball velo and strikeout rate are well above the 70th percentile.
The Rockies are batting .219 on the road, a massive dropoff compared to their .269 average at home. Lopez should have no issues carving up the lineup, and I expect him to remain in the game long enough to rack up at least seven strikeouts.
Alternate First Five Innings Over 5.5 (+162)
Now, I know what you're thinking. I just told you how remarkable Lopez has been in 2024 and that the Rockies can not hit worth a lick on the road. There is some wiggle room for us here.
First and foremost, the biggest reason the total will eclipse 5.5 runs is primarily because of Gomber's terrible numbers on the road. Besides Soler, the Braves have mashed against Gomber, hitting over .315 as a team.
Gomber may only last a short time if his pitch counts rack up, but then the Braves will get the honor of destroying the Rockies' league-worst bullpen (5.34 ERA). The Braves should contribute at least 4-5 runs to the total in the early going, and that is enough wiggle room for the Rockies to scrap across a run against Lopez.
Lopez may have excellent stuff, but he's still walking too many hitters and is prone to hard contact. It's not too far-fetched to think the Rockies can score one or two runs through five innings.
That said, I think the alternate total in the first five innings offers much value.
