Rockies vs Cardinals Odds, Pick
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+158 | 7.5 -122o / +100u | +1.5 -134 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-188 | 7.5 -122o / +100u | -1.5 +112 |
The St. Louis Cardinals dropped Game 1 of a four-game set against the Colorado Rockies, 3-2, last night. The Cards' bats were silenced by Cal Quantrill and the back end of the Rockies' bullpen for the majority of the evening.
Tonight, former Cardinal Austin Gomber is on the bump for Colorado, and he'll face off with Lance Lynn. Most shops have the Cardinals as a -200 favorite at home with the over/under at 7.5.
Let's make a Rockies vs. Cardinals pick as we take a look at the MLB odds for Friday, June 7.
Colorado Rockies
It's been a lost season for the Rockies, but Michael Toglia's home-run rob last night was spectacular.
Michael Toglia brings this ball back 😲 pic.twitter.com/TXtyEEUz4h
— MLB (@MLB) June 7, 2024
Toglia, who made his season debut last night, got it done at the plate and with the leather to snap the Rockies' four-game losing streak. But tonight, it's Gomber who needs to show up against his former team.
Looking at the numbers, Gomber has been effective thus far, especially considering he pitches at Coors Field most of the time. But it's time to pump the breaks, as his 3.04 ERA comes in more than a full run lower than his xERA of 4.34.
He has decent numbers against the current Cardinal hitters, who are hitting .238 against him in 42 career at-bats. However, it's a small sample size, and I wouldn't put too much stock into those numbers.
Although Gomber has regression looming, the Rockies' lineup gets a decent matchup against Lynn. Lynn is also a candidate for negative regression moving forward, which bodes well for the offense.
The biggest issue with the Rockies has been their bullpen.
They have by far the worst bullpen in baseball, entering tonight's game with a 5.23 ERA. The next closest team is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 4.85 ERA, which speaks volumes about how awful the Rox have been thus far.
I can't back them due to this walking disaster.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals must start winning consistently, or a fire sale is imminent at the trade deadline. Veterans like Lynn, Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Giovanny Gallegos and others are all prime trade candidates for teams in contention.
The offense is a big reason why they've struggled. They're bottom-five in runs scored per game and bottom-10 in batting average.
In a tough division, that's not going to get the job done. Luckily for the offense, they face their former teammate in Gomber, who, like Lynn, is due for negative regression moving forward.
Lynn has a respectable 3.23 ERA through 12 starts, but his xERA sits nearly a run higher at 4.17. His whiff rate, chase rate and velocity are also all down from last season.
It's not a surprise to see regression at this current stage in his career, but Lynn has become a much craftier hurler in the process. He's not allowing a lot of hard contact, so I think he can be effective against a bad Rockies offense.
Last night's offensive performance doesn't give me much confidence, but I think the Cards can put some runs across the board against Gomber. Arenado and Goldschmidt need to start hitting consistently, as they're a crucial part of the team's offensive success.
Rockies vs Cardinals
Betting Pick & Prediction
It's a tough sell right now, but I have to take a shot with the Cardinals on the run line.
The offensive matchup against Gomber makes me believe they can generate some runs early. Plus, even if they are held stagnant, we can cash in later against a horrific Rockies pen.
I normally hate taking chalk, but considering the circumstances of the series, it's now or never for the Cards. This is a great opportunity to get their season back on track, and they need to take advantage against bad teams.
As long as Lynn puts up a respectable performance, the Cardinals' pen is strong enough (top-10 in ERA) to hold a late lead to cash our tickets.
