Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins Odds
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -102 | 8 -115o / -105u | +195 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -118 | 8 -115o / -105u | -238 |
Let's dive into the Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins odds and make a prediction in our MLB betting preview for Wednesday, June 12.
Pablo López was an elite arm in 2023, but his results in 2024 thus far have been subpar. His peripherals are favorable, but he just has not yet put it together. Yes, he is facing a below-average Colorado Rockies team Wednesday, but his performances over the last month have not been encouraging.
He and the Minnesota Twins will face Austin Gomber on Wednesday. Gomber has thrived off favorable fortune, and very much the polar opposite of López, he has unfavorable peripherals.
However, Minnesota has not exactly crushed righties lately, and the Rockies have a few bats who can piece together some runs and provide the boost with Gomber on the bump.
Is there value on the underdog? Let's take a look in our Rockies vs. Twins prediction.
Colorado Rockies
Gomber has a 3.38 ERA and 4.47 xERA, so negative regression will come for him eventually. His Average Exit Velocity is above 89 mpg. And while he does not walk many hitters, he also doesn't strike many out. That said, he has elite breaking pitches, ranking in the 97th percentile. The top of the Minnesota lineup has done damage against lefty breaking balls, but then it tends to fall off a cliff.
The Rockies have an injury-riddled lineup. They currently have several bats on the Injured List, which has led them to a 76 wRC+ off righties in the last month. They have four active batter above a .325 xwOBA, but six above .305. This is not spectacular, but the majority of their lineup can battle. Since López is not striking many hitters out, the Rockies could string together some runs early.
Colorado has an awful bullpen, with only two arms under a 4.00 xFIP. Gomber’s lack of strikeouts and walks, though, has helped him throw into the sixth inning multiple times, so that could happen here if he can limit the hard contact. Bear in mind, the Rockies do have three relief arms under a 4.00 xFIP on the road in the last month, so that could help.
Minnesota Twins
López was an ace in 2023. And while he currently holds an ERA above 5.00, his xERA is under 3.25. That means he could have a killer second half of the season. However, his strikeout rate has dipped since last year, and his Hard-Hit Rate is also up a little. He still holds above-average strikeout and walk rates, but there is some justification for the sour results. In fact, over the last month, López has a .329 xwOBA against him with a strikeout rate under 20%. That is concerning, given he has yielded an OBP of over .350 in that timeframe.
The Twins definitely have the better lineup here. However, they have an 80 wRC+ with a 4.7% walk rate against lefties over the last month. They have six batters with a .325+ xwOBA. Yes, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Manuel Margot are over .400, but the latter two have struggled against lefty breaking balls. Gomber could be the mismatch to neutralize those two and provide an edge to Colorado.
The Twins also do not have a lethal relief staff. In the last month, they have three arms under a 4.00 xFIP. That is comparable to the Rockies, therefore not giving much of an edge to either team’s relief staff.
Rockies vs Twins
Betting Pick & Prediction
López is the better starting pitcher in this game and will have better results than Gomber by season’s end. On the other hand, he has not been as sharp of late, and neither team has a lockdown bullpen. Since Gomber has a nice slider and knuckle-curve, he can up his off-speed utilization and keep the Twins in check.
Bet Colorado as a massive road underdog here from +200 to +170.
Pick: Rockies ML (+200 via FanDuel | Bet to +170)
