It’s no secret that I love me a good, quick bet. That said, I don't quite have the stomach for Yes Run in the First Inning (YRFI) or No Run in the First Inning (NRFI) wagers. The variance is too heavy.
So thank god for five inning totals.
For Brewers vs. Phillies tonight at 6:40 p.m. ET, I'm rolling with the over on runs at BetMGM, which is priced at o5.5 (-110).
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Brewers pitcher Julio Teheran had a great first six starts, but he’s been tagged for six and seven runs in his last two outings. Meanwhile, the Phillies' Aaron Nola has let up at least four runs in 62% of his outings since May.
The best hitters for the Brewers and Phillies haven't been doing too hot as of late. Both offenses rank in the bottom five in production from their top three hitters, according to the Action Network's Billy Ward. But they're due for positive regression and the market is skewed too heavily toward these priors.
Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper aren't going to be shelved forever. For now, the market undervalues that quartet. It's time to pounce while the market is down.
Take the over 5.5 for first five.
