I'm feeling good coming off a 6-leg parlay under winner from last night.
Tonight, we give you an over-under parlay to play. For the over, we go to the Blue Jays vs. Padres game.
Jays starting pitcher Alek Manoah went from third place in Cy Young voting to Rookie Ball. And although he had a good outing last week, I’m not too convinced he’s back. The Padres have scored at least eight runs in 25% (4 of 12) of their games in July and eight of the last 10 games have hit at least eight total runs combined.
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Meanwhile, Joe Musgrove is due for negative regression after a strong June, despite the love from the advanced metrics. Yes, his hard hit rate is among the top 8% of MLB. Yes, his walk rate is among the top decile. But that's not how the Blue Jays generate runs — they move the baton.
The over is 9.5 this game. Blue Jays games average about 8.8 runs per. Buy it down to 7.5 at BetMGM and get -225 for this leg.
For the second game, we’re taking a contrarian angle relative to the market. Zach Davies is on the mound for Arizona. He’s 1-5 with a 6.37 ERA and has shown little signs of life. He's below average in every conceivable advanced metric in the book.
But this matchup is ripe for the under. The under has hit in four of the last five matchups.
Bryce Elder has been pitching great this year for the Braves, but got absolutely shelled in his last time out, which inflates this number a bit more. You get 10.5 runs (-115) at BetMGM. Buy it back to 12.5 for another -225 and hit the under.
Parlay the Blue Jays-Padres over 7.5 with the Diamondbacks vs. Braves under 12.5 and get better than even money at BetMGM.
