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Royals vs. Guardians, 7:10 p.m. ET
Ryan Yarbrough vs. Logan Allen
B.J. Cunningham: Here's the deal: Ryan Yarbrough has not been good this season. However, when you split his numbers from his time in the bullpen — he did make seven appearances there — versus his time as a starter, he's slightly better as a starter. He has a 4.80 xFIP as a starter and a 6.50 xFIP as a reliever.
Yarbrough, over his career, has been an elite pitcher at generating soft contact. He's consistently been in the 90th percentile in average exit velocity allowed and hard-hit rate allowed, and this year is no different.
What's really working for him in this matchup is that the Guardians are just terrible against left-handed pitching. They're bottom five in wOBA and wRC+ against lefties. They have the lowest hard-hit rate in baseball against lefties. Not to mention, against Yarbrough's arsenal of sinker, cutter, curveball and changeup, the Guardians have a -11 run value against the left-handed version of those pitches.
The Royals will be going against Logan Allen, who is a negative regression candidate. He has a 3.20 ERA and a 4.20 xERA. Allen has been a little too reliant on his fastball. He throws it 46% of the time, and opponents have a 3.50 wOBA against it, while the Stuff+ on that pitch is barely above 80. He does have a good sweeper, but his changeup is well below average. I don't see him sustaining a 3.20 ERA with one pitch over a long period of time.
I get it, the Royals are so bad. However, they do hit lefties a little better than righties. They are dead last against righties, and 22nd against lefties. I have the Guardians only projected at -135, so I think you're getting a decent edge on the Royals. I believe the best price is +167.
Sean Zerillo: I'm with B.J. on the Royals here. I projected this line at +145.
B.J. said all the points that I would make. Yarbrough has been better as a starter than as a reliever this year. He had a 4.40 xERA in his past couple of seasons with the Rays, but fell off a little bit at the start of this year. It seems as if he's coming back into form and getting back to that 4.40 type level. He has a 4.80 xFIP as a starter thus far, and he's still rounding into form.
Logan Allen has a 4.30 xERA, so if Yarbrough is getting back to that 4.40 level, there's little difference between these two starting pitchers. Both offenses are in the bottom four against left-handed pitching, so I would make Kansas City closer to +145.
I like them in both halves. They are +155 for the first five innings, and +160 for the game.
