Royals vs. Tigers Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+126 | 9 -114 / -106 | +1.5 -146 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -148 | 9 -114 / -106 | -1.5 +122 |
The Kansas City Royals suddenly find themselves in a heated race in the standings.
It is seemingly going to come down to the Royals and Oakland Athletics for the worst record in baseball. The A’s were recently able to put together a seven-game winning streak — though they've since dropped five straight. The Royals, on the other hand, have lost 11 of their last 12 games.
On Monday night, the Royals will celebrate Juneteenth with the Detroit Tigers in the first game of a three-game set at Comerica Park. The Tigers haven’t been much better, sitting 10 games under .500. That record is good for third in the depressing AL Central, though, and they are just five games behind the first-place Minnesota Twins.
When you look at the MLB slate and see a game between two teams well below .500, in a matchup with two pitchers who have an ERA over 6.00, that means only three groups of people are watching — people from Kansas City, people from Detroit, and people with money on it.
So where does the betting value lie in the series opener between the Royals and Tigers on Monday?
Kansas City Royals
Jordan Lyles has made 14 starts this season — the Royals have lost all 14.
He has a dreadful 6.89 ERA, but a slightly less dreadful 5.03 xERA. In Lyles' starts, opponents have scored at least four runs against him in 11 of them.
In one of the more remarkable stats I’ve seen this year, Lyles has more earned runs (61) than strikeouts (59). He has also surrendered the second-most home runs in the league (18).
Over the last two years, Lyles has added a sweeper to his pitch arsenal. It has not gone well — opponents are hitting .286 with a .386 wOBA against it.
It doesn’t help that Lyles doesn't get much run support. The Royals offense ranks 29th in wRC+ and they only have two players with a wRC+ above 105.
They recently lost first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino (torn labrum) for the season, a huge blow for a team that can’t afford to lose an above-average bat.
Detroit Tigers
Detroit’s No. 11 prospect (per MLB Pipeline), Reese Olson, made his big league debut on June 2 and has made three appearances overall — two starts and one relief outing after an opener.
Olson was solid in his first two appearances, allowing three runs over 10 innings. Then he ran into the buzzsaw that is the Braves and gave up six runs in 3 1/3 innings. His 6.08 ERA isn't great, but his xERA is a lot more palatable at 3.69.
The right-hander's callup was a bit of a surprise given his struggles with Triple-A Toledo, where he had a 6.38 ERA and rather unsightly April (11.20 ERA in 13 2/3 innings). However, three solid starts in May and an injury to Eduardo Rodriguez paved the way to a promotion.
Backing Olson is an offense tied for the fewest runs in the league. Detroit has some fun pieces, like Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson, but Greene is the only regular on the team with a wRC+ over 110. He's on the injured list, so he won't be a factor in this one.
Royals vs. Tigers Betting Pick
This game is extremely difficult to handicap — one team will start an unproven rookie while the other will start a veteran who's been bad for most of his career. It is hard to confidently put your money behind either pitcher. So, do we fade them both and take the over?
Well, these offenses rank 28th (Royals) and 29th (Tigers) in runs and are in the bottom four in both wRC+ and wOBA. On top of that, both are especially horrific against right-handed pitching. They are the two worst teams in the league, ranking 29th and 30th in wRC+ against righties.
Detroit’s offense has been hitting the ball pretty well over the last week — notably, Matt Vierling, but he was scratched on Sunday with lower back spasms and might be held out of the lineup on Monday.
I know this is lame and boring, but in the interest of full transparency, there is no chance I bet this game. These are gross teams who have starting pitchers I have no interest in betting on.
However, I would lean toward Kansas City. While fading Lyles has been extremely profitable, it’s hard to lay -145 with Detroit.
My belief is that a bad pitcher and a bad offense against another bad pitcher and bad offense could really go either way, so take the plus money.
The Tigers have only been a favorite six times this season. They have only been a favorite of more than -125 twice and are 0-2 in those games. One of those was against the Royals.
The only thing I know for certain about this game is that if I’m going to watch it, I’d rather have a +125 ticket in my pocket than -145.
Pick: No Bet. Lean Kansas City (+124).
