Royals vs. Twins Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+235 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 +104 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -290 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 -125 |
The Minnesota Twins' pitching staff has been the story of the series, as they have held the Kansas City Royals to just one run over the first two games.
Now as they look for a sweep, one of their biggest acquisitions will take the ball.
Pablo Lopez has looked phenomenal through his first five starts in Minnesota. He enters with a 3.00 ERA, which comes after he surrendered five runs to the Washington Nationals in his last outing.
Opposing Lopez for Kansas City will be Jordan Lyles. The veteran right-hander's tenure in Royal Blue has not gotten off to the best start. However, his experience in the American League may give him the edge needed to bounce back this afternoon.
So, with the Royals looking to salvage this series, what's the best way to play this matchup? Let's dig in to find out.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals' lineup is filled with potential, but through the first few weeks of the season, it has not come close to reaching it.
As a result, the Royals enter this matchup dead last in wRC+ and wOBA.
Although, if you look at this team from a Statcast perspective, you can see the positive regression coming. The Royals have seven hitters with above-average hard-hit rates, and five of them have average exit velocities over 90 miles per hour.
For all of that solid contact, their resurgence will need to begin another day because Lopez should silence their bats. Lopez's uptick in velocity has resulted in an uptick in results.
Opposing batters have a xBA of just .194, and his strikeout rate is up nine percent from last season. Lopez has the opportunity to return to form in a dominant fashion this afternoon.
Minnesota Twins
We saw the thunder from the Twins' lineup last night as home runs from Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa spurred the offense to a seven-run output. However, as a whole, the Twins' order has yet to produce consistently.
Minnesota sits in the middle of the pack in wRC+ and wOBA, but what's more concerning is its quality of contact. Unlike the Royals, the Twins have just three hitters with above-average hard-hit rates and only two with average exit velocities over 90 miles per hour.
Those numbers make a decent matchup for Lyles. Lyles has been victimized by extra-base hits through his first five starts, but his solid history against this lineup points to a better performance today.
The Twins have accumulated 89 at-bats against Lyles and have combined to hit .258 with a slugging percentage of .393. For all the Twins' hitters that have made loud contact in small sample sizes, their combined average exit velocity off Lyles is just 89.9 mph.
History shows that the ball is bound to find some fielders this afternoon, and that will be Lyles' recipe to keep runs off the board.
Royals vs. Twins Betting Pick
We have seen the total sway in the direction of the over due to the Twins' ability to mash, and recency bias certainly aids that.
However, the numbers show that both starters are being underrated in this matchup.
Lopez has been dominant and should pick back up against a Royals lineup that has struggled to plate runs.
Lyles has been largely unlucky with the amount of extra-base hits he's allowed, but his history against the Twins points to him having better luck.
The support for the over has given us an edge in the first five of this matchup, as it has gone up a half-run.
I'm taking that hook and using it to my advantage, as both these starters will limit runs in the early going.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-123) |
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