First and foremost, I would like to wish everybody out there a happy Memorial Day.
We have an interesting pitching matchup in Minneapolis, as the Minnesota Twins open up a series against the first-place Kansas City Royals.
The Royals have won eight of their last 10, despite losing to Tampa yesterday.
Meanwhile, the Twins have scuffled a bit, but they have their ace on the mound in Joe Ryan. Ryan is putting together another terrific season, compiling 64 strikeouts over 60 innings pitched with an ERA just below 3.10.
On the other side of the rubber, Alec Marsh enters this matchup with an ERA of 2.72 and a 1.07 WHIP.
For today’s matchup, I cooked up a four-leg single-game parlay that will pay roughly 9-1 odds.
Here's my Royals vs Twins MLB parlay, including SGP picks for Monday, May 27.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Royals vs Twins MLB Parlay: SGP Picks (+741, FanDuel)
- Alec Marsh Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
- Joe Ryan Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
- Maikel Garcia Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
- Over 7.5 (-120)
Alec Marsh Under 5.5 Strikeouts
It’s been a solid season for Marsh thus far, but it’s time for everybody to check themselves before the hype gets out of control.
Despite an ERA below 3.00, Marsh has an xFIP of 4.10. He was typically known as a strikeout pitcher before entering the season, but for whatever reason, he's transformed into a more traditional pitch-to-contact type of arm.
Not to say that's the worst thing, but it's still concerning knowing this season is an outlier compared to years past.
He also has a 36% ground-ball rate and a 2.5% walk rate, so the implosion is bound to happen sooner rather than later.
The Twins are 18th in baseball in strikeouts per game, but I have a feeling Marsh is going to get roughed up a bit here. He’s pitched very well lately, but all it takes is one start to fall back to earth.
Expect the Twins to give Marsh trouble in the early going and force him out of the game early before he can eclipse his strikeout total.
Joe Ryan Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Ryan is having another strong season, and this strikeout prop is too juicy to pass up, no pun intended.
His numbers against the Royals are quite astonishing, and I think they’re even more impressive considering how often these two teams face each other.
The one area of concern for me is that the Royals rarely strikeout; they're currently second-to-last in strikeout rate. They remind me a lot of the 2014-2016 teams that consistently put the ball in play, which led to sustained success.
But we have to disregard that in pertains to Ryan, especially given his excellent track record. Ryan has a dazzling 30 CSW% and 13.3% swinging strike rate. That's amongst the upper portion of starting pitchers in the league.
Don’t overthink it, just lay the juice here and bank that Ryan garners six punchouts.
Maikel Garcia Over 1.5 Total Bases
It was very difficult to dig through the Royals’ offensive numbers against Ryan because they’re pretty atrocious.
Let’s face it: Ryan completely owns the Royals. As a team, the Royals are hitting .158 against him in over 90 at-bats. That's a decent sample size that I'm willing to bank on.
The one Royal who resembles any sort of success against Ryan is Maikel Garcia. Garcia is 2-for-6 with a HR against Ryan and will be hitting leadoff, per usual.
Since the Royals are on the road, there’s a legitimate chance we see — at minimum — four at-bats from Garcia, and potentially even five if things go our way. That's enough chances to hit a double or two singles.
I like the Twins' matchup against Marsh today, but I had a hard time narrowing down hitters I liked for props.
Therefore, I’ll roll the dice with Garcia in the leadoff spot.
Over 7.5
It’s not fun taking an over given Ryan has dismantled the Royals in the past, but I love the idea of fading Marsh here.
Besides that, once Ryan exits the game, the Twins have to trot out a horrific bullpen to bridge the gap until they turn to Jhoan Duran late in the game with an assumed lead.
Marsh is due for regression, and I expect that to start happening sooner rather than later.
Ryan will hold his own while he’s in the game, but I have no confidence in the Twins' bullpen at all.
It’ll be like a breath of fresh air for the Royals' lineup once Ryan exits the game, and they're far too talented to be contained for long.
I would hesitate to take an F5 over, but the full game is where I believe we’ll get to eight runs or more.
