The Padres secured the top NL wild-card spot with their 5-3 victory in Friday's series opener and will officially host Game 1 of the Wild Card series Tuesday at Petco Park as a result.
Though the next two games don't technically matter from a Padres perspective, they can force a potential wild-card opponent in the Diamondbacks to continue using top arms, and manager Mike Shildt stated postgame on Friday: "We'll still get after it these next two days."
Saturday's matchup could feature some fireworks, as two of the league's worst starters to throw over 90 innings this season will face off. Find my Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction for Saturday, September 28, below.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Predictions
- Padres vs Diamondbacks picks:Over 9 Runs (-125 | Play to -135)
My Padres vs Diamondbacks best bet is on Over 9 Runs, where I see value at -120. The best line is available at Bet365, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Odds
| San Diego Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 9.5 -105o / 115u | +158 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 9.5 -105o / 115u | -190 |
- Padres-Diamondbacks Moneyline: Padres +158 | Diamondbacks -190
- Padres-Diamondbacks Total: Over/Under 9.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Padres-Diamondbacks Spread: Padres +1.5 (-125) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+105)
Padres-Diamondbacks Probable Starting Pitchers
| RHP Randy Vasquez (SDP) | Stat | LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-7 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 5.18/6.16 | ERA /xERA | 5.56/5.85 |
| 4.78/4.87 | FIP / xFIP | 4.71/4.19 |
| 1.59 | WHIP | 1.52 |
| 7.4% | K-BB% | 13.2% |
| 38.6% | GB% | 35.3% |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 76 |
| 102 | Location+ | 104 |
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks Preview
Padres Betting Preview: Not Much to Play For
This game could be viewed as a potential letdown spot for the Padres, who have nothing left to play for. Keeping an eye out for lineup news today and tomorrow will be important, as surely Mike Shildt will play it safe with any of his regulars playing through any kind of ailment.
The Padres did use several top relievers last night after Yu Darvish lasted just five and a third, and it's logical to expect a higher workload than normal for the team's low-leverage arms the next two days. Michael King has also been scratched from tomorrow's start, as he will likely start one of the first two Wild Card matchups.
Vasquez is clearly at the back of the Padres rotation and therefore, is still making this start. In his last five starts, Vasquez has pitched to an ERA of 8.22 and holds an xFIP of 5.68 with a K-BB% of 0.9. He's allowed a .316 batting average in that span, which is actually better than his expected mark of .322.
Four of those five starts have come on the road, where Vasquez has struggled to an ERA of 6.79 this season with a WHIP of 1.81.
Vasquez's 14% strikeout rate is the fourth lowest of any starter to throw 60 innings. With men in scoring position, Vasquez has pitched to an xFIP of 5.44 and holds a K-BB% of 5.6%.
The Padres have hit significantly worse splits against left-handed pitchers than righties this season but still rank above league average with a wRC+ of 103 since July 1st. They rank second in BB/K ratio versus lefties in that span and have struck out only 16.7% of the time.
Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Rodriguez Struggles at Home
Since July 1st, the Diamondbacks offense has been the best in the league by a margin, as they hold a wRC+ of 130 and an OPS of .838. The next closest team in those respective categories has been the Dodgers, who hold a wRC+ of 119 and a .787 OPS in that span. The Diamondbacks also rank first with a wRC+ of 132 versus right-handed pitching, specifically in that span.
Rodriguez has been one of the biggest disappointments among the Diamondbacks roster this season and has remained in shaky form with a 6.00 ERA in five starts this September. He holds a WHIP of 1.79 in those outings and has been hard-hit 47% of the time. He has struggled mightily pitching at batter-friendly Chase Field this season, where he holds an ERA of 6.75.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Betting Analysis
While the Padres likely won't field their top lineup, this still looks like a good spot to target the over or possibly the Diamondbacks team total specifically. Vasquez likely won't make it very far into this matchup, and at that point, the Padres will likely throw some softer relievers than we would typically see.
Rodriguez has had a horrific season to this point and has continued to struggle of late in particular. The Padres should be able to manage some offense of him and contribute to a total that looks too low for a matchup between these starters at Chase Field.
If the Padres rest some key bats, I would still bet the over 9 to a price of -125 and would go slightly wider if they field a solid lineup.
Pick: Over 9 Runs -125 (Bet365, Play to -135)
Moneyline
San Diego is 46-32 on the road this season and 30-24 as an underdog.
Arizona is 43-36 at home this season and 51-32 as a favorite.
Run Line (Spread)
The Padres are 46-32 ATS on the road (7.3% ROI, second best in MLB) and 36-18 ATS as an underdog.
The Diamondbacks are 36-43 ATS at home and 36-47 ATS as a favorite. The Diamondbacks are 72-52 (.571) against the run line (3.7% ROI) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
Over/Under
Totals are 36-39-3 (O/U) when San Diego is on the road. Totals are 27-27 (O/U) when San Diego is an underdog.
Padres games have gone OVER 64% of the time (22.7% ROI) when San Diego is priced between +101 to +149this season — 3rd highest in MLB. League Average: 49%.
Totals are 49-28-2 (O/U) when the Diamondbacks are at home this season. Totals are 49-32-2 when the Diamondbacks are a favorite.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends
- 89% of the bets and 52% of the money is on the Diamondbacks moneyline.
- 86% of the bets and 92% of the money is on the over.
- 86% of the bets and 97% of the money is on the Diamondbacks to cover the run-line.
Padres Betting Trends
The Padres are 7-3 in their last ten games, and 7-3 in their last ten games on the road. They are 6-5 versus the Diamondbacks this season.
Diamondbacks Betting Trends
The Diamondbacks are 5-5 in their last ten games and 4-6 in their last ten games at home.
