The Braves host the Padres on Tuesday, July 21. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on BravesVsn.
The Braves are favored by -144 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are +122 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Braves Prediction, Picks
- Braves ML (-144)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR (-160)
Padres vs Braves Odds, Run Line
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 9 -110o / -110u | +122 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 9 -110o / -110u | -144 |
- Padres vs Braves moneyline: Padres +122, Braves -144
- Padres vs Braves over/under: 9 runs
- Padres vs Braves spread: Braves -1.5
Padres vs Braves Probable Pitchers
| Walker Buehler (RHP, SD) | Stat | Reynaldo Lopez (RHP, ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-5 | W-L | 4-2 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 5.36 / 4.50 | ERA / xERA | 3.50 / 4.49 |
| 4.35 / 4.12 | FIP / xFIP | 4.30 / 4.48 |
| 11.9% | K-BB% | 11.2% |
| 47.4% | GB% | 38.8% |
| .316 | BABIP | .262 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 99 | Location+ | 101 |
Padres vs Braves Same-Game Parlay Picks
Leg 1: Braves Moneyline
For the first leg of our SGP for Tuesday night, I favor backing the Braves on the moneyline in a matchup they should have a considerable edge on the mound.
In his first 19 outings on the mound in 2026, the Padres’ Walker Buehler has recorded an abysmal 5.36 ERA and surrendered a whopping 53 earned runs across 89 innings.
Despite vast success early in his career, Buehler has dealt with several injuries in recent years, most notably undergoing Tommy John surgery toward the end of 2022.
Since recovering from surgery, Buehler has yet to record a sub-4.00 ERA and has been unable to revert to his previous elite form.
While he has been quite volatile on the mound over the first half of this season, the Braves’ Reynaldo Lopez has been a model of consistency.
In 22 appearances on the mound, having been used as both a starter and in relief, Lopez has recorded a solid 3.50 ERA along with a rather efficient 1.26 WHIP as well.
In addition to Atlanta’s substantial pitching edge on Tuesday night, I am far higher on the Braves, especially after betting them to win the World Series prior to the start of the season.
Given the Braves are also playing at home, where they hold a 29-19 record, this is a spot I heavily favor Atlanta to kick off our parlay.
Leg 2: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
If you have read any of my previous SGP segments, you would know I typically favor pairing two negatively correlated wagers, given the inverse relationship between the two results and the odds magnification on the back end.
That said, I will be looking to back Friars’ superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. to exceed his 1.5 HRR (Hits + Runs + RBIs) mark as the second leg of our SGP.
Despite Tatis having recorded just one hit across six previous plate appearances against Lopez, Tatis blasted his lone hit out of the park, which gives me more confidence in his finding success at the plate tonight.
According to BARTOLO, Lopez throws his four-seam fastball far more than any other pitch in his arsenal with an incredibly high 55% usage rate.
Despite Lopez’s impressive overall numbers on the season, his primary weapon has resulted in opposing hitters generating a pretty high .343 xwOBA.
Though Tatis has at times struggled versus higher-velocity four-seamers, Lopez's velocity should leave him exposed given Tatis’ historically posting elite exit velocities and launch angles against heaters.
While the Padres’ star struggled at the plate to kick off the season, he is heating up and now ranks fifth with 109 hits.
Because of that, I feel great backing Tatis to exceed his 1.5 HRR mark in what should give our Tuesday SGP some prime value.
Padres vs Braves SGP Picks
- Braves Moneyline (-144)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR (-160)
Parlay Odds: +201 (FanDuel)
