The Chicago Cubs host the San Diego Padres on October 2, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 5:08 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Padres vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Padres vs Cubs Pick, Prediction
- Padres vs Cubs picks: Under 7.5 (-110 | Play to -115)
My Padres vs Cubs best bet is Under 7.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Cubs Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -225 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -105 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +185 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -115 |
Padres vs Cubs Probable Starting Pitchers
| RHP Yu Darvish (SDP) | Stat | RHP Jameson Taillon (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-5 | W-L | 11-7 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 5.38 / 3.64 | ERA /xERA | 3.68 / 3.88 |
| 4.82 / 4.15 | FIP / xFIP | 4.66 / 4.34 |
| 1.18 | WHIP | 1.06 |
| 16.6% | K-BB% | 13.7% |
| 40.4% | GB% | 34.3% |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 98 | Location+ | 109 |
Padres vs Cubs Top Betting Trends & Insights
Padres Recent Betting Performance, Stats, Player Insights
The San Diego Padres hand the ball to right-hander Yu Darvish in this elimination game. Despite his poor surface-level stats, Darvish’s underlying metrics suggest he remains a strong pitcher.
This season, Darvish ranked in the 66th percentile in expected ERA (xERA), 75th percentile in expected batting average (xBA), 91st percentile in average exit velocity and 95th percentile in hard-hit rate. That expected positive regression is likely to come to fruition against Chicago.
Over his past six starts against the Cubs, Darvish is 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.85 WHIP.
Following Darvish is one of the best bullpens in baseball. In 2025, San Diego’s relief corps finished first in ERA, fielding independent pitching (FIP) and wins above replacement (WAR).
Cubs Padres Recent Betting Performance, Stats, Player Insights
That said, the Cubs’ bullpen can hold its own. This season, Chicago ranked in the top half of the league in ERA, xERA and expected FIP (xFIP).
Prior to the bullpen, right-hander Jameson Taillon is capable of taking care of business. Through 23 starts this season, Taillon is 11-7 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
His analytics are equally impressive. Entering this matchup, Taillon ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Like Darvish, Taillon has excelled against his current opponent. Through five career starts against the Padres, he owns a 2-0 record with a 2.40 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
Padres vs Cubs Game 3 Prediction and Picks
There have been four or fewer total runs scored in each of the first two games of this series, and another low-scoring affair is likely. Both starting pitchers are capable of handling the task, and each bullpen is elite.
San Diego has particularly struggled at the plate. The Padres finished the regular season in the bottom half of the league in slugging percentage (SLG), OPS and home runs.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110 | Play to -115)
Padres vs Cubs Trends
How to Watch Padres vs Cubs and Game 3 Info
- Time: 5:08 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois
