The Philadelphia Phillies host the San Diego Padres on July 2, 2025 in Game 1 of their doubleheader. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FDSMW.
Find my MLB betting preview and Padres vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Padres vs Phillies Prediction
- Padres vs Phillies pick: Padres ML -118 (Play to -125)
My Padres vs Phillies best bet is Padres moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Phillies Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 9 -101 / -121 | -120 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 9 -101 / -121 | -101 |
Padres vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Dylan Cease (SD) | Stat | RHP Mick Abel (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-7 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 2.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 4.53 / 3.51 | ERA / xERA | 3.47 / 6.03 |
| 3.23 / 3.32 | FIP / xFIP | 6.09 / 4.20 |
| 1.32 | WHIP | 1.16 |
| 20.6% | K-BB% | 14.6% |
| 37.7% | GB% | 31.5% |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 110 |
| 100 | Location+ | 101 |
Tony Sartori's Padres vs Phillies Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
Dylan Cease’s surface-level stats are heavily weighed down by a particularly poor performance against the Los Angeles Dodgers, something that can happen to even the best pitchers.
Outside of that one outing, which has skewed his numbers, Cease has allowed three or fewer runs in each of his past 13 starts.
His underlying metrics suggest that this success is likely to continue.
Entering this matchup, Cease ranks in the 66th percentile in expected ERA (xERA), 71st percentile in expected batting average (xBA) and 89th percentile in strikeout rate.
Following Cease is one of the best bullpens in baseball. This season, San Diego’s relief corps ranks in the top five in ERA, fielding independent pitching (FIP) and wins above replacement (WAR).
The primary concern for this pitching staff is whether it'll receive enough run support.
That said, the Padres should be in for a big day against Mick Abel.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The former fifth overall pick has, on the surface, gotten off to a solid start in his rookie campaign.
Through five starts, Abel is 2-1 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.
However, his analytics suggest he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball, and that regression is quickly looming. He possesses a 6.03 xERA and .302 xBA, which, if he qualified, would place him among the worst starting pitchers in the league.
Furthermore, Abel would rank in the bottom quarter of the league in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. If that expected regression comes to fruition and he gets chased early, his bullpen is unlikely to bail him out.
Philadelphia’s relief corps ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA, FIP and WAR.
The clear pitching advantage in this matchup belongs to San Diego.
Padres vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
Cease’s misleading surface-level stats, combined with Abel’s unsustainable start, have created an incredibly generous line for the Padres in this spot.
Cease has pitched exceptionally well outside of that one poor outing against the powerhouse Dodgers.
Meanwhile, Abel’s underlying metrics are among the worst in baseball.
Add in the Padres’ bullpen edge, and they're the team to back on Wednesday.
Pick: Padres ML -118 (Play to -125)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm betting on the Padres moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like San Diego to cover, but I find more value in just taking the outright moneyline price.
Over/Under
I lean toward the under, but I don't trust Abel.
