Padres vs Pirates Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +155 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -190 |
Padres vs. Pirates odds (via BetMGM) for Thursday have the Pirates as -115 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (-105o / -115u). However, for my Padres vs. Pirates prediction, I'll be looking at a different market as I see betting value on the run line.
Right-hander Randy Vasquez takes the mound for San Diego, while Pittsburgh will hand the ball to right-hander Luis Ortiz.
See how I think Padres vs. Pirates on Thursday, August 8, will play out in my MLB betting preview below.
Padres vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Randy Vasquez (SD) | Stat | RHP Luis Ortiz (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-6 | W-L | 5-2 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 4.62 / 5.91 | ERA /xERA | 3.21 / 3.96 |
| 4.85 / 4.74 | FIP / xFIP | 3.81 / 4.57 |
| 1.53 | WHIP | 1.18 |
| 8.8% | K-BB% | 11% |
| 34% | GB% | 42.2% |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 102 | Location+ | 102 |
Tony Sartori’s Padres vs Pirates Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Fade Vasquez
Vasquez is near the top of my "pitchers to fade" list. His surface-level stats are poor with a 3-6 record, a 4.62 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP through 16 starts this season.
However, his underlying metrics are even worse. Vasquez owns a fade-worthy 5.91 xERA and ranks in the bottom 17th percentile or worse in xBA, strikeout rate and barrel rate.
Meanwhile, San Diego possesses one of the stronger lineups in baseball, which is why this game is almost a pick 'em despite Vasquez taking the mound. With that said, run support may be difficult to come by against Ortiz.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: Can Ortiz Quiet Padres?
Ortiz started this campaign in the bullpen before transitioning to a starting role, where he has mostly kept up a high-level of pitching. Through 28 appearances this season, Ortiz is 5-2 with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.
His analytics are equally strong as the 25-year-old ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate and hard-hit rate. Following Ortiz is a competent enough bullpen that ranks in the top half of the league in FIP.
Run support can be shaky from the Pirates, but it's not like they are incapable of it. This season, the Pirates hover right around the league average in terms of runs scored per game.
It's an extremely small sample size, but Pittsburgh's lineup possesses a .279 xBA, a .385 xSLG and a .332 xwOBA through eight combined career plate appearances against Vasquez.
Padres vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
At home, with a clear advantage in the pitching department, I think it's worth backing the Pirates in this spot. Ortiz outranks Vasquez in wins, ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
So, if we are backing the home team, should we do so on the moneyline (-115) or the run line (+180)? I personally prefer the +180 number, though there is value to be had with both.
Nine of Pittsburgh's past 11 wins have come by at least two runs, while each of San Diego's past 12 losses have been by multiple runs.
Pick: Pirates -1.5 (+180 at BetMGM | Play to +170)
Moneyline
Pass.
I don't think this is a poor play, but I believe that there's more value in backing Pittsburgh's run line.
Run Line (Spread)
Bet the Pirates (-1.5) on the run line at +180.
Over/Under
I'm going to pass on the over/under.
There are too many contradicting variables to attack this market. Vasquez is one of the worst pitchers in baseball, while Ortiz has shown he is capable of stepping up against any lineup.
If I absolutely had to choose, I would lean toward the under because the Pirates sometime fall asleep at the dish. However, I don't think that will occur against Vasquez.
