The San Francisco Giants host the San Diego Padres on June 2, 2025. First pitch from Oracle Park is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
Find my MLB betting preview and Padres vs Giants prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Padres vs Giants Prediction
- Padres vs Giants picks: Giants First Five Innings -0.5 (-118) | Play to -130
My Padres vs Giants best bet is Giants First Five Innings -0.5 (-118). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Giants Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 7.5 -105 / -115 | +148 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 7.5 -105 / -115 | -177 |
Padres vs Giants Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Stephen Kolek (SD) | Stat | RHP Logan Webb (SF) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | 5-5 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.2 |
| 4.11/3.70 | ERA /xERA | 2.82/2.99 |
| 3.86/3.85 | FIP / xFIP | 2.19/2.29 |
| 1.30 | WHIP | 1.21 |
| 10.9% | K-BB% | 22.3% |
| 56.4% | GB% | 56.3% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 99 | Location+ | 108 |
Kenny Ducey’s Padres vs Giants Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
After cruising through two starts against the lowly Pirates and Rockies, Stephen Kolek has finally learned what life is like against true big-league offenses. In his last three outings, he's totaled 14 earned runs across 16 1/3 innings, and he's struggled to find the strikeout stuff that he possessed through his first two turns while still walking too many batters.
Kolek's now issued five walks to nine punchouts in his last 11 1/3 frames, and there's a slim chance he ever finds an inordinate number of punchouts given his profile. Kolek is a ground-ball pitcher who's never blown anyone away in the strikeout column down in the minors, and while his walks have been under control, we can reasonably expect this start to come down to how much the Giants can do on contact.
The good news is that Kolek's Expected Batting Average on the season is at an acceptable .256. The bad news is that his infield defense not only ranks second-worst in Outs Above Average, but the task at hand is only getting harder on account of his .286 xBA in the last three outings.
Things have taken a turn offensively in the last two weeks, too. San Diego is still not striking out, but its power has been sapped to the tune of a .143 ISO and it would seem some batted ball luck is turning with its .225 BABIP coming in just above its .202 average over that time. This is a team that is running a .286 BABIP for the season, however — right in line with the league average — so things should turn in that column, at the very least, in due time.
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview
Logan Webb is just a more polished version of Kolek at 28 years of age, running one of the highest ground-ball rates in the bigs yet again — only this time he's doing it far better than he ever has.
It seemed Webb was hitting a wall last season as he stumbled home to a 3.47 ERA, but under the surface, things looked far more daunting. His strikeout rate was once again merely average, and in his second straight season with a terrible hard-hit rate above 46%, his xBA jumped to .271. Even worse, his xSLG was up for a second straight year at .412 — and it appeared with all of this that the once-feared righty had quickly lost his touch on contact.
Well, he's come out guns blazing this season. That xBA is down to .249, which is not an incredibly low number, but one which represents an improvement upon the last two years, and his xSLG stands at .356, which would be the second-best of his career.
The mystery with Webb is all these strikeouts. He's up over 27% in his strikeout clip, and just when it looked like things were coming back down to Earth, he rung up 10 Tigers across six frames last week.
Padres vs Giants Prediction, Betting Analysis
While the Padres don't defend in the infield all that well, the Giants aren't much better. They've ranked just 25th in OAA, but their mark of -6 is still eight outs better than their counterparts.
With that, I think we ought to pay attention to the ground ball/fly ball splits here. San Francisco is the fourth-best team in the league against the former with a .783 OPS, but against flu-ballers, it has been shockingly bad with the fourth-worst OPS in the game. San Diego, meanwhile, has been just about the same against both varieties.
Considering San Diego's defense is making life hard on its ground-ballers, and its offense has lost its way at the plate with hits incredibly hard to come by, I think we've got to ride the home team in this matchup between two utterly similar sides.
The Giants have been just as bad at the plate, but they shouldn't have to worry about the strikeouts, which have haunted them at times against Kolek. Furthermore, they're still hitting for contact better than the Padres, even if they're hitting .219 in the last two weeks, and they should get plenty of help from this defense.
Pick: Giants First Five Innings -0.5 (-118)
Moneyline
The Giants make up 56% of the bets but 64% of the money wagered on the moneyline here — a firm difference which indicates the big bettors
Run Line (Spread)
The Giants have covered just 13 of 36 times as the favorites and three times in their last 10, while the Padres are 13-10 to the run line as underdogs.
Over/Under
The sharps and the big bettors are aligned on the Under here, which has taken on just 23% of the bets. Our signals are pointing to this being the sharp play.
Padres vs Giants Betting Trends
Padres vs Giants Weather
