The Seattle Mariners host the San Diego Padres on May 16, 2026. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Mariners are favored by -175 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are +145 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Mariners Prediction
- Padres vs Mariners Pick: Randy Arozarena 1+ Hit / Josh Naylor 1+ Hit / Logan Gilbert 6+ Strikeouts (+291)
My Padres vs Mariners best bet is a three-leg parlay involving Randy Arozarena, Josh Naylor and Logan Gilbert. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Mariners Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 7 -120o / 100u | +145 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 7 -120o / 100u | -175 |
- Padres vs Mariners moneyline: Padres +145, Mariners -175
- Padres vs Mariners over/under: 7 (-120o / +100u)
- Padres vs Mariners spread: Padres +1.5 (-150), Mariners -1.5 (+125)
Padres vs Mariners Probable Pitchers
| RHP Walker Buehler (SD) | Stat | RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 2-3 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 5.20 / 4.85 | ERA / xERA | 3.78 / 4.34 |
| 3.65 / 3.82 | FIP / xFIP | 3.88 / 3.37 |
| 12.0 | K-BB% | 20.6 |
| 46.9 | GB% | 37.7 |
| .309 | BABIP | .305 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 97 | Location+ | 108 |
Padres vs Mariners MLB Betting Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The Padres have a lot of household names in their lineup. However, for the second straight season, they have struggled to produce collectively.
After ranking 18th in runs scored last season, they are just 25th this season, averaging just 4.1 runs per game. They are also last in the MLB in batting average and 28th in OPS.
Just three Padres regulars (Xander Bogaerts, Gavin Sheets, and Miguel Andujar) have an above league-average OPS+. Fernando Tatis Jr. is still in search of his first home run, while Manny Machado is batting below the Mendoza line.
Despite the offensive struggles, the Padres are still eight games above .500 following last night's 2-0 victory.
Michael King has bounced back from injury, and Randy Vasquez's breakout season has been huge for the team as they have dealt with several injuries in their rotation. They both have sub-2.70 ERAs and exactly a 1.6 WAR.
Vasquez fired six more scoreless innings last night, and Mason Miller finished it off with his league-leading 14th save.
Walker Buehler will look to follow up on that performance tonight. The former two-time All-Star has struggled to regain that form in recent years, following two Tommy John surgeries. He has not posted an ERA below 4.02 since 2021. However, he does have a few positives to build on.
Buehler is coming off one of his best outings of the season, as he went six innings and allowed two runs on three hits last time against the Cardinals. Additionally, at 19.6%, he currently has his highest strikeout rate since 2022. He has 31 strikeouts in 36 and 1/3 innings this season.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview
Cal Raleigh has not been able to replicate his historic 60-home run season to this point, and he is now on the IL. However, even without their 2025 MVP candidate, the offense has come alive of late.
On their seven-game road trip, the Mariners scored eight runs or more three times. They went 4-3 on the trip while averaging 5.4 runs per game.
Randy Arozarena, Josh Naylor and Julio Rodriguez have led the way, particularly Arozarena, who is hitting .444 over the last week. Rodriguez is hitless in the last two games, but he has five home runs and a .890 over the last week. The team will look to bounce back tonight after last night's shutout.
Logan Gilbert will get the start for the Mariners, and he is 2-3 with a 3.78 ERA. He is currently allowing career-highs in xERA, xSLG, hard hit percentage, and average exit velocity.
His strikeout rate is down a bit as well, but he is still above league average. Gilbert has 52 strikeouts in 50 innings.
Padres vs Mariners Pick, Betting Analysis
Collectively, the Mariners are hitting .224 against Buehler, and Arozarena and Naylor haven't had a hit off him, but that may change given their recent forms.
Arozarena has a hit in eight of his last nine games and two hits in four of his last five games. This season, he has reverse splits and is hitting .317 against right-handed pitchers.
Naylor has a hit in four straight and nine of his last 10 games. Buehler is allowing a .261 batting average to left-handed hitters.
Additionally, Gilbert has six strikeouts in five of nine starts this season and is coming off a nine-strikeout performance against the White Sox. He faces a Padres lineup that has the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the last month.
Action PRO projects him for 6.6 Ks tonight.
Gilbert had seven strikeouts in his last start against the Padres, when they were among the most difficult teams to strike out.
If he gets there again, I like our chances of cashing this three-leg parlay.
Pick: Randy Arozarena 1+ Hit / Josh Naylor 1+ Hit / Logan Gilbert 6+ Strikeouts (+291, BetMGM)
