The Miami Marlins (11-13) host the St. Louis Cardinals (14-9) on April 22, 2026. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 12:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MIAM.
The Marlins are favored by -136 on the moneyline and by -1.5 (+146) on the run line. The Cardinals are +116 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-176) on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs (-100 / -122).
Find my MLB picks and Cardinals vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cardinals vs Marlins Predictions and Pick
- Cardinals vs Marlins Pick: Marlins ML (-140 or Better)
My Cardinals vs Marlins best bet is on the Fish. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | +116 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | -136 |
- Cardinals vs Marlins moneyline: Cardinals +116, Marlins -136
- Cardinals vs Marlins over/under: 8.5 (-100 / -122)
- Cardinals vs Marlins spread: Cardinals +1.5 (-176), Marlins -1.5 (+146)
Cardinals vs Marlins Probable Pitchers
| Kyle Leahy (RHP, STL) | Stat | Janson Junk (RHP, MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 0-2 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 5.21 / 5.67 | ERA / xERA | 4.50 / 3.54 |
| 5.92 / 4.56 | FIP / xFIP | 3.91 / 4.16 |
| 5.8% | K-BB% | 9.7% |
| 50.8% | GB% | 50.7% |
| .283 / 77.9% | BABIP / LOB% | .304 / 62.5% |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 105 | Location+ | 108 |
Cardinals vs Marlins Best MLB Pick
The Cardinals are one of the more pleasant surprises so far. They’re five games over .500, but the entire NL Central has a winning record, which makes the hot start a bit less impressive.
Taking the mound for St. Louis is Kyle Leahy, who’s struggled in his transition from reliever to starter. He has a 5.21 ERA with a 5.67 xERA and a 5.92 FIP.
Leahy has the pitch mix to be a capable starter, throwing six pitches more than 10% of the time, though none are elite offerings. The only thing Leahy does “well” is generate ground balls at a 52% rate. But he also gets hit really hard, so some of those ground balls sneak through.
Nobody had very high expectations for this young Cardinals offense. So, for them to rank 17th among MLB lineups with a 99 wRC+ is probably ahead of schedule. The crazy part is they have a 10% walk rate, which ranks 11th — they make pitchers work.
The resurgence of former top prospect Jordan Walker has changed the complexion of the lineup. He’s become the big bopper, leading the team with eight homers (nobody else has more than three).
My biggest long-term worry for the Cardinals is their bullpen.
It’s nice to have a stud closer, like Riley O’Brien, but the bridge to him is a bumpy one. Ryne Stanek, George Soriano, and JoJo Romero occupy high-leverage innings, and all three have a worse xERA than their actual ERA. The Cardinals just have to hope the regression doesn’t hit all at once.
The Marlins have a losing record, but it’s good enough for second in the NL East behind the scalding-hot Braves.
Janson Junk is the classic strike-throwing innings-eater. The 30-year-old has a 4.50 ERA, an encouraging 3.54 xERA, and a 3.91 FIP. He generates ground balls at a 50.7% clip and walks just 4% of batters he faces.
Despite not having a bunch of household names, the Marlins rank 10th among MLB lineups with a 102 wRC+. They have six hitters with a wRC+ above 100, led by Griffin Connie’s 162 and Otto Lopez with a 161. Plus, Kyle Stowers, an All-Star from last year, made his season debut on Saturday.
Miami is a bit more old school, striking out just 21% of the time. Putting the ball in play is what sets this Marlins lineup apart from others.
I also think Miami has a bullpen advantage.
The basic numbers don’t shine a great light on Miami’s pen, but Pete Fairbanks will get rolling. The stud closer has a 5.14 ERA with a 1.14 xERA. They can also match up platoons, as John King destroys lefties, while Lake Bachar and Anthony Bender can take care of righties.
How To Make Cardinals vs Marlins Picks
I’m rolling with the Fish.
I don’t like Leahy as a starter, and Junk is due for plenty of positive regression.
Throw in Miami’s bullpen advantage and Stowers’ return, and I’m liking Miami’s chances on Wednesday.
Pick: Marlins ML (-140 or Better)
Cardinals vs Marlins How To Watch
- Date: Wednesday, April 22
- Time: 12:10 p.m. EST
- Venue: loanDepot Park
- How to Watch (TV): Cardinals.TV/Marlins.TV
- Cardinals record: 14-9
- Marlins record: 11-13
