Two teams in the American League postseason hunt will kick off a three-game series on Friday night at Minute Maid Park as the Tampa Bay Rays visit the Houston Astros.
Tampa Bay is currently 4 1/2 games out of the final AL wild card spot entering Friday, meaning every series is important for it going forward. The Astros are only one game better and would also be on the outside looking in if not for playing in the AL West. Houston currently is tied with Seattle for the AL West lead, but whoever doesn’t come away with the division crown may miss the postseason entirely.
Shane Baz will face off against the newly-acquired Yusei Kikuchi, who is making his Astros debut. See how I think this AL clash will play out in my MLB betting preview below, which includes my Rays vs Astros prediction and pick.
Rays vs Astros Odds & Prediction
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+136 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -155 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-162 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +130 |
Rays vs Astros Projected Starting Pitchers
| Shane Baz | Stat | Yusei Kikuchi |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 4-9 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.3 |
| 3.66 / 5.45 | ERA /xERA | 4.70 / 4.00 |
| 3.93 / 4.43 | FIP / xFIP | 3.66 / 3.41 |
| 1.42 | WHIP | 1.34 |
| 11.8% | K-BB% | 20.1% |
| 35.1% | GB% | 40.9% |
| 117 | Stuff+ | 110 |
| 98 | Location+ | 102 |
Cody Goggin's Rays vs Astros Preview
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview: Can Shane Baz Harness Elite Stuff?
Baz will be making his fifth start of the season tonight for the Rays. The former first-round pick and No. 3 prospect in the Rays’ system arrived in the big leagues in 2021 with limited action, but he's been injured often the last few seasons, resulting in him missing out on some experience.
Baz has pitched 19.2 innings this season with 19 strikeouts and a 3.66 ERA, but his xERA of 5.45 is a bit more concerning.
Baz has a Stuff+ of 117, which is one of the highest marks for a starting pitcher in the league, albeit with sample size issues. Baz has an 84th-percentile fastball velocity to go along with this stuff, but he has just a 22% whiff rate and a 22.4% strikeout rate, both well below average.
Baz also has a mediocre 10.6% walk rate.
The 25-year old has had issues with allowing hard contact this season, allowing a 52.6% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph.
He's also only induced a ground ball 36.8% of the time, which is in the bottom quartile.
Tampa Bay has had a league average offense this season, ranking 15th with a wRC+ of 100. It has the eighth-highest walk rate but also the ninth-highest strikeout rate.
The Rays rank 26th in hard-hit rate and 27th in exit velocity, while also hitting the ball on the ground 43.2% of the time, which may not be ideal in tonight’s matchup.
The Rays were one of the busier teams at the deadline, so it’s hard to tell what this offense will be like going forward, especially after the subtraction of Isaac Paredes, Randy Arozarena and Amed Rosario. The Rays added Christopher Morel and Dylan Carlson.
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Yusei Kikuchi's Astros Debut
Kikuchi will start for Houston tonight. The 33-year-old lefty was the Astros’ star acquisition at the deadline as they needed help beefing up this rotation.
He had a 4.75 ERA with Toronto this season, but he had a 4.00 xERA and a 3.48 SIERA while striking out 130 batters in 115.2 innings.
Kikuchi has had really good stuff this season, posting a 110 Stuff+. This ranks 13th out of 69 qualifying pitchers, despite this metric typically knocking left-handers down a bit.
He has a 77th-percentile fastball velocity, 73rd-percentile whiff rate and 75th-percentile strikeout rate.
He's also limited free passes, walking just 6% of opposing batters.
An area where Kikuchi has struggled is allowing hard contact, as he ranks in the eighth percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, 14th percentile in barrel rate allowed and seventh percentile in average exit velocity.
He keeps the ball on the ground 41.2% of the time, but you still would like to see this be higher with the quality of contact he's allowing when not missing bats.
Houston’s offense ranks ninth in the league in wRC+ and 11th in wOBA. The Astros walk at just the third-lowest rate in the league but also strikeout at the third-lowest rate, resulting in plenty of batted balls.
The Astros rank just 17th in hard-hit rate, 18th in barrel rate and 12th in exit velocity, which is a bit surprising given their level of production. Nothing specific stands out in their batted-ball profile outside of having the fourth-highest line drive rate and eighth-highest pull rate.
Houston ranks eighth in xwOBA but 15th in xwOBACON due to its low amount of walks taken.
Rays vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
Kikuchi has had great stuff all season, and I think we see that translate well in Houston. He has a strong matchup tonight against a Tampa Bay offense that doesn’t hit the ball extraordinarily hard and strikes out often, which I think sets up well for him to have a strong outing.
Baz has been okay this year and has good stuff, but there are definite red flags in his profile. He hasn't struck out batters like you would expect, and he has also allowed far too many walks, along with some worrying hard contact numbers.
Houston’s offense has produced like one of the better units in the American League and that makes for a tough matchup if Baz can’t keep it together.
Moneyline
I like the Astros here however you want to take them. Their current moneyline price of -162 is getting close to the cutoff point of where I’d take it, but I wouldn’t be looking to bet the Rays here unless these odds were to dramatically shift.
Run Line (Spread)
The Astros not only have the better starting pitcher and offense in this matchup, but they have the best bullpen as well. You can currently take Houston at +136 on the run line, which I prefer taking over the moneyline, as I think it'll win handily tonight.
Over/Under
I expect a good start from Kikuchi tonight, but that doesn’t mean that I expect him to be completely flawless.
On the other side, I’m not backing Baz in this matchup and I think that Houston could lead the charge to push this game over the current total of 7.5.
Houston has an above average park factor at 103 this season, including with the roof closed. With the temperatures in the mid 90s in Houston today, I would expect that the roof remains closed for this game.
