The New York Mets (45-26) host the Tampa Bay Rays (38-32) on Sunday, June 15, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on WPIX and FanDuel Sports Sun.
The Mets need to bounce back after losing the first two games of this series, and they will trust Griffin Canning to silence the Rays' bats while Shane Baz gets the ball for Tampa Bay.
Find our Rays vs Mets prediction below, as well as Sunday probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Our Rays vs Mets Prediction
- Rays vs Mets picks: New York Mets ML (-150, BetMGM)
Our Rays vs Mets best bet is on the Mets moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Mets Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8 -105o / -115u | +125 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8 -105o / -115u | -150 |
Rays vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Shane Baz (TB) | Stat | RHP Griffin Canning (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | W-L | 6-2 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 4.97/4.08 | ERA /xERA | 3.22/4.49 |
| 4.90/3.96 | FIP / xFIP | 4.10/3.81 |
| 1.34 | WHIP | 1.35 |
| 13.0 | K-BB% | 12.0 |
| 51.2 | GB% | 49.2 |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 97 | Location+ | 99 |
Rays vs Mets Preview
The Mets have surprisingly lost two games in a row against the Rays, but it would be a real shocker if they were swept at Citi Field today.
First of all, there are warning signs about them. Before this series, they had a six-game winning streak after sweeping the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals. If you think that doesn't mean much, the Mets had split the previous four-game series against the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers as visitors.
They have the best offense in MLB, along with the Dodgers, with a 124 wRC+, and they are not slowing down. The Mets were also the best run-producing team in June with 132 wRC+, seven more than the second-place Boston Red Sox.
Their pitching also leads the majors with a 2.91 ERA and is third in WAR (10.2). In June, they have barely dropped to sixth in ERA (3.04) and eighth in WAR (1.8). Those numbers include the Los Angeles series when the Dodgers were held to a combined 16 runs in four games.
Despite those losses, New York still has an excellent record at home (27-9), and their offense should support Griffin Canning today.
Canning has had a solid season, and although the numbers and his career history might suggest some regression, he still produces 49.2% ground balls and pitches at Citi Field, which is placed in the bottom five in run-production among MLB stadiums in Statcast Park Factors' leaderboard.
The Mets will face Shane Baz, who has been unlucky since his xERA and xFIP stats aren't terrible but has allowed three runs in each of his past three starts while never getting to the sixth inning, which also gives the advantage to New York in a possible bullpen battle.
The Mets' pitching staff as a whole has the best home ERA at 2.67, while Tampa Bay has a 3.64 ERA in away games.
This is definitely a revenge spot for the Mets, as our Bet Labs system points out with a recommendation for today's pick.
Rays vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Revenge Spot Favorites system in MLB moneyline betting backs strong teams that recently lost to the same opponent by a narrow margin.
These are teams with winning records, solid average margins of victory, and a moderate level of favorability in the market.
The setup looks for clubs in a groove — on a defined home or away stretch — deep enough into the season to have established identity and motivation.
When these teams re-enter a matchup after dropping the previous head-to-head by just a few runs, they often carry added focus, especially when still priced as the better team.
This system leans into that bounce-back edge where both form and motivation align.
Pick: New York Mets moneyline (-150, BetMGM)
