The Toronto Blue Jays (46-53) host the Tampa Bay Rays (56-42) on Monday, July 20. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on RAYS and MLB.TV.
The Blue Jays are favored by -164 on the moneyline and by -1.5 (+128) on the run line. The Rays are +138 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-154) on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs (-106 / -114).
Find my MLB picks and Rays vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Picks
- Rays vs Blue Jays Pick: Blue Jays ML | Under 7.5
My Rays vs Blue Jays best bet is for the Blue Jays to win and the under to hit. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Blue Jays Odds, Betting Line, Over/Under
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +140 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -170 |
- Rays vs Blue Jays Moneyline: Rays ML +140, Blue Jays ML -170
- Rays vs Blue Jays Over/Under: 7.5 Total Runs
- Rays vs Blue Jays Run Line: Rays +1.5 (-160), Blue Jays -1.5 (+135)
Rays vs Blue Jays Projected Pitchers
| Nick Martinez (RHP, TB) | Stat | Dylan Cease (RHP, TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-2 | W-L | 6-4 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.7 |
| 2.65 / 4.68 | ERA / xERA | 2.56 / 2.85 |
| 3.91 / 4.61 | FIP / xFIP | 2.18 / 2.62 |
| 10.0% | K-BB% | 25.9% |
| 35.0% | GB% | 44.4% |
| .264 | BABIP | .308 |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 105 | Location+ | 99 |
Rays vs Blue Jays MLB Betting Preview
Let's talk about Rays pitcher Nick Martinez.
The man is eighth in baseball among qualified starting pitchers in ERA at 2.26, yet his 14.5% K% is ranked 61st. That doesn't match up and is a completely unsustainable ERA for Martinez, even when you factor in whatever magic the Rays have up their sleeve.
This does seem like a good matchup for Martinez, since the Blue Jays do not strike out, but they don't hit the ball hard and rarely hit the long ball.
And that's exactly what Martinez specializes in. The Rays bullpen is ranked third in the league per our BARTOLO tool, and they are one of the best-managed teams in the league. So this shapes up pretty well for their general style.
On the other side, we have Dylan Cease for the Jays, who ranks second in the league in strikeout rate (behind Jacob Misiorowski).
So these two pitchers couldn't be much different. If you're into baseball data at all, you know the most important predictor of pitching success is strikeouts. Cease's strikeout rate is way more than double the rate of Martinez, and I just can't shy away from that in the betting world.
I do think the Rays can limit the runs here.
I think we'll see a low-scoring affair, but through two very different means. Cease gets the strikeouts, Martinez gets the outs on balls in play.
I'm taking the Blue Jays at -142 and I'm taking the under 7.5. I don't believe in either offense; both clubs are near the lowest in the league in home runs, so we're feeling pretty good about betting unders when either of these teams show up.
Rays vs Blue Jays Picks
- Blue Jays Moneyline (-54)
- Under 7.5 (-114)
