Let;s dive right into my my Rangers vs. Mariners prediction for Friday, September 13.
Two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom will make his first MLB start in 503 days as he takes the mound for the Texas Rangers (71-76) this Friday. He will be opposed by Emerson Hancock of the Seattle Mariners (74-73), who was recalled from Triple-A yesterday to fill the void lift in the rotation due to Luis Castillo's injury.
Rangers-Mariners Predictions
- Rangers-Mariners picks: Rangers First Five Innings -0.5 (+100)
My Rangers-Mariners best bet is on the Rangers first five innings run line of -0.5, where I see value at +100 down to -115. The best line is available at BetMGM, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rangers vs Mariners Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-130 | 7 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +134 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 7 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -162 |
Rangers vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jacob deGrom (TEX) | Stat | RHP Emerson Hancock (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 (season debut) | W-L | 3-4 |
| N/A | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| N/A | ERA /xERA | 4.76/6.15 |
| N/A | FIP / xFIP | 5.42/5.17 |
| N/A | WHIP | 1.32 |
| N/A | K-BB% | 7.1% |
| N/A | GB% | 35.5% |
| N/A | Stuff+ | 87 |
| N/A | Location+ | 102 |
Nick Martin’s Rangers vs Mariners Preview
Texas Rangers Betting Preview: deGrom Ready For Season Debut
While any hopes of back-to-back World Series titles are essentially out the window, the Rangers are exhibiting some signs for optimism in a lost year right now with deGrom returning only a day after a dominant showing from top ranked pitching prospect Kumar Rocker, who struck out seven batters and allowed three hits in four innings.
deGrom's lengthy layoff makes this a highly volatile spot for bettors, as the 36 year-old returns from his second Tommy John. deGrom maxed out at 49 pitches during his rehab assignment, and will certainly be on a low pitch count in this matchup. During his rehab start his four-seamer averaged 98.2 MPH. He had a 43% whiff-rate on his slider, and a 50% whiff-rate on his changeup.
In deGrom's last two MLB seasons he has pitched to xERA's of 1.87 and 2.24 respectively. He's made just 17 starts since 2022, but holds an absurd xFIP of 1.79 and has struck-out 13.38 batters per nine in that span.
The Rangers lineup is playing slightly closer to it's potential of late, particularly given that Evan Carter and Corey Seager remain out of the lineup. Over the last month of play the Rangers have hit to a 15th ranked wRC+ versus right-handed pitching.
Wyatt Langford has started to find his groove with a ..848 OPS in his last 79 PA's, which is another positive as the Rangers play out a lost season.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Small Margin for Error
Hancock will get another opportunity to work at the games highest level, and returns in a huge spot for a Mariners side with a very small margin for error after another disappointing loss Thursday.
Hancock holds a 3.43 ERA in 94 1/3 innings in Triple-A this season, and has earned another recall with a solid stretch of results of late. His stuff doesn't grade out very well relative to league average though (87 Stuff+), and his low velocity fastballs have been getting crushed when he has been up with the Mariners this season.
Hancock has allowed xSLG rates of .642 and .459 on his sinker and four-seamer respectively this season. In his last five starts he has pitched to an xFIP of 5.85, with a K-BB% of 1.9.
The Mariners have improved considerably since the additions of new manager Dan Wilson and Hall of Fame hitting coach Edgar Martinez. Since those two were appointed into their new roles the Mariners have hit to a wRC+ of 122 against right-handed pitching across 507 PAs.
Rangers vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis: Bet on deGrom
This looks like a pretty volatile matchup, as both starters return to big league action after lengthy layoffs for varying reasons. The reports on deGrom's stuff in his Triple-A start were positive though, and his fastball velocity was on par with his usual numbers.
Given the Rangers situation, deGrom will certainly be on a low pitch count here, but the flip side of that is you would have to imagine he's not making this start if the Rangers aren't fully comfortable with where he is at. If deGrom is to return somewhere close to his usual level, he provides a gigantic pitching edge over Hancock, who likely also won't pitch overly deep into this game.
The Rangers don't look to be favored enough in the innings that should be deGrom versus Hancock, and I see value backing them to cover the first five innings run line.
Pick: Rangers First Five Innings Run Line (-0.5), +100 at BetMGM
Moneyline
The Mariners are 42-30 at home this season, and are 20-26 as an underdog.
The Rangers are 29-42 on the road this season, which puts them in the leagues bottom five sides in terms of profitability on the road. They are also 47-35 as a favorite.
Run Line (Spread)
The Mariners are 33-39 against the spread at home this season, and are 21-25 ATS as an underdog.
The Rangers are also 29-42 on the road against the spread, and are 31-51 ATS as a favorite.
Over/Under
Totals (O/U) have gone 26-42-4 at T-Mobile Park this season, which has been the most pitcher friendly ballpark in MLB by a margin. Mariners games are 67-72-8 (O/U) overall, and when Seattle is an underdog totals are 22-19-5 (O/U).
Totals are 38-29-4 when the Rangers are on the road this season. Totals are also 35-44-3 (O/U) when Texas is a favorite, which likely revolves largely around how greatly its offense underachieved early on this season.
Rangers vs Mariners Betting Trends
Rangers Betting Trends
- The Rangers are 6-4 in their last 10 ten games
- The Rangers are 6-4 in their last 10 road games
- The Total is 6-4 (O/U) in the Mariners last 10 games
- The Rangers are 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 games
Mariners Betting Trends
- The Mariners are 5-5 in their last 10 games
- The Mariners are 6-4 in their last 10 games at home
- The Total is 6-2-2 (O/U) in the Rangers last 10 games
- The Mariners are 5-5 against the spread in their last 10 games
