Tigers vs. Blue Jays Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | -130 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | +110 |
The Toronto Blue Jays will look to end their series against the Detroit Tigers on a good note after falling short in the past two games. The Blue Jays enter as -130 favorites on the road, while the underdog Tigers hope to secure the series victory.
It's an early game at 11:35 a.m. ET, so get your alarms ready if you like sleeping in on Sunday's. Let's check out the MLB odds and make a Tigers vs. Blue Jays pick.
Toronto Blue Jays
The demise of the once young Blue Jays core, who appeared to be a World Series contender for the next decade, will go down as one of MLB's great "what if" stories. The Blue Jays enter the final game of their four-game set against the Tigers at 23-28 and last in the AL East.
Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have hit their stride, each boasting a 190 or better wRC+ in the past 12 games. Proven veterans George Springer and Justin Turner look like dead weight in this Blue Jays lineup; Turner has a three wRC+ in the same span and Springer is hitting below .200. Teams can pitch around the surging Bichette and Guerrero to face the scuffling vets.
Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen is arguably the best hitting catcher in the sport and the clear frontrunner for the starting catcher in the All-Star game. During his breakout 2024 year, Jansen is hitting .313 with an OPS over 1.000 and a 184 wRC+. Something the regular stat fans and advanced stat fans can agree on: Jansen is excellent.
Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi takes the ball for the Blue Jays as he looks to continue his outstanding season. Kikuchi owns a 2.64 ERA in 58.1 innings, and his 2.68 xERA would indicate regression is a non-issue. Kikuchi gets hit pretty hard, ranking in the 34 percentile in average exit velocity and 33rd percentile in hard-hit rate, per Statcast. The most noticeable discrepancy in Kikuchi this year compared to others is the lack of home runs, allowing 0.62 HR/9 this season compared to 1.54 last year. The 0.62 HR/9 is Kikuchi's lowest in a full season in his MLB career.
Just like the hitters turning things around in the past two weeks, the Blue Jays' bullpen has also shown improvement, posting a 2.89 ERA.
Detroit Tigers
There's a troubling trend brewing in Detroit. The Tigers lost five of their past six games against southpaw starters, and as mentioned earlier, Kikuchi is one of the toughest lefties out there. Kerry Carpenter is the Tigers' best pound-for-pound hitter, but he's not the answer for the Tigers' left-handed hitting woes since he only starts against right-handers. Another strong lefty bat, Riley Greene, is batting just .184 against left-handers and hitting below .200 in the past two weeks.
The Tigers aren't a good hitting team, posting a 91 wRC+. The lineup simply lacks firepower; only three players (Greene, Canha and Carpenter) have 6+ homers and the next closest is three home runs. I'm highly skeptical of the Tigers consistently winning games with an offense this shaky.
Casey Mize is on the mound for the Tigers, and the former No. 1 overall draft selection will try to put his disastrous six earned runs in a 1.2-inning performance against the Royals in the rearview mirror. When will the good fortune turn in Mize's favor? He's been unlucky so far, owning a 4.57 ERA with a 3.79 FIP. A ground-ball pitcher being unlucky is nothing new, but Mize should only improve as the season continues, so long as the Tigers' defense helps him out.
Tigers vs. Blue Jays
Betting Pick & Prediction
Trends are trends for a reason, and I'm hoping to make money on the Tigers' trend of losing to left-handed pitching. Plus, I am more comfortable backing Kikuchi here than I am backing the highly volatile Mize. While the Blue Jays scored just three total runs in the past two games, their offense is far better than it showed.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (-130 via FanDuel | Play to -145)
