Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7.5 +105o / -125u | +115 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 7.5 +105o / -125u | -135 |
Tarik Skubal could be the best pitcher in baseball at the moment. The veteran left-hander has been spectacular for the Detroit Tigers and holds excellent peripheral metrics, which would indicate this trend will continue. For example, he does not allow hard contact, he misses bats and he does not walk many hitters.
His opponent will be Reynaldo López and the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday. López has smoothly transitioned back into the starting pitcher role, and this has greatly benefitted the Braves, who had a major injury to their ace to start the season.
Since both lineups have had issues hitting lately, runs could be at a premium in this matchup. Let's dive into my betting preview and prediction for Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves on Wednesday, June 19.
Detroit Tigers
López is not as lethal as Skubal is, and his sub-2.00 ERA may not be sustainable, but the righty has a sub-4.00 xERA. He does have a tendency to allow flyballs and some hard hits, but he can miss bats. He owns a 25.8% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. Since the Tigers have not hit the ball well, this should be all he needs.
The Braves have lost multiple key pieces to the lineup. In addition to the knee injury to Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris has now hit the Injured List. For the Atlanta hitters with 10+ plate appearances against southpaws in June, only three have a .320+ xwOBA. Much of the bottom of the lineup has been ineffective against lefties — Skubal will be an even bigger test. In June, the Braves only have a 101 wRC+ with a sub-5% walk rate. This will not help against the hottest pitcher in baseball at the moment.
The Braves have a collective 3.74 xFIP with a strikeout rate above 27% in the bullpen. They have six arms under a 4.00 xFIP, so even if López has issues with walks and accruing pitches, they have the artillery to take down a relatively weak lineup from Detroit.
Atlanta Braves
Skubal owns a 2.20 ERA and 2.52 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity ranks in the 86th percentile, while his Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 91st percentile. This is typically pretty hard to do, while throwing an average fastball of 96.6 MPH. Adding on, Skubal only walks 4.8% of batters with nearly a 30% strikeout rate. He is catching Atlanta’s injury-riddled lineup at the right time, so look for him to continue these successes.
The Tigers have not hit well in general. Against righties in June, they have a 77 wRC+, 6.5% walk rate, and 24.8% strikeout rate. They only have two batters above a .320 xwOBA with those same parameters in place, so even though López has been fortunate in the early going, Detroit may not have enough to get by him early.
The Tigers’ relief staff has a 4.23 xFIP in June with a sub-9% walk rate. They do have four active arms under the 4.00 xFIP mark, though, so this could be more than enough, when Skubal exits. Since he has kept the ball on the ground and has gone at least six innings in each start but one this season, he will help the Detroit bullpen.
Tigers vs. Braves
Betting Pick & Prediction
Even though the total is low, take the under in this game. Skubal and López have both been reliable. Skubal is the better of the two starting pitchers, but López will notch some strikeouts and should give the Braves five-plus against a porous Detroit lineup.
Both bullpens should do the legwork in the latter innings to keep this under the total. Take it from 7.5 to 7.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110 at FanDuel | Play to Under 7)
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