The gritty Detroit Tigers return home in front of their excited fans at Comerica Park for Game 3 of the ALDS against the Cleveland Guardians.
I've built an SGP for this pivotal Game 3 — find my Tigers vs Guardians MLB parlay for Wednesday below.
Tigers vs Guardians Parlay Picks for Game 3
- Under 7 (-110)
- Alex Cobb 4+ strikeouts (+155)
- Steven Kwan to record a hit (-220)
Parlay Odds: +600 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Tigers vs Guardians Parlay Leg 1
Under 7 (-110)
If you’ve been locked into this ALDS, one thing likely stands out: the lack of runs from the losing team. The winner of each game has won in shutout fashion.
We know the game plan of both teams, particularly with the Guardians throwing Alex Cobb and the Tigers going with an opener.
They want three or four innings from a “bulk” guy just to get through the decent portion of the innings before giving way to the top two bullpens in baseball. It helps the under that the Tigers and Guardians boast the two best bullpens in the sport, although Emmanuel Clase leaked oil for the first time this year in Game 2. The two 'pens surrendered six total runs in the series' first two games.
The total has gone under in each of the four Tigers postseason games, and the highest-scoring game was seven in Game 1 against Cleveland and seven in Game 2 against the Astros.
The scoring in this series has largely come from two innings: The Guardians scoring five in the first few innings of Game 1 and the Tigers scoring three in the ninth inning of Game 2.
The middle innings were quick, and filled with little-to-no offensive output. That speaks a bit to the success of the bullpens, but also the inconsistency of the offenses.
Another thing that bodes favorably to the under is the pitcher-friendly environment of Comerica Park. The ballpark ranks as the sixth-hardest park to hit at, according to Statcast park factors, which is much worse than the hitter-friendly Progressive field in Cleveland.
A lot of signs point to the under.
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Tigers vs Guardians Parlay Leg 2
Alex Cobb 4+ Strikeouts (+155)
It feels like books have no clue where to price Alex Cobb’s strikeout prop, and I totally understand why.
The 37-year-old has never started a postseason game and he is coming off a blister issue that sidelined him for over a month.
In Cobb’s truncated inaugural year in Cleveland, he struck out six batters twice and a single batter in his first start back from his initial injury. He’s still plenty good, and the 2.5 for his strikeout prop feels extremely low — even if he likely goes just three or four innings at most.
First-year manager Steven Vogt rolled Tanner Bibee out for Game 1. He went 4 2/3 innings with six strikeouts, and veteran southpaw Matthew Boyd mirrored Bibee's outing with 4 2/3 innings and five strikeouts in Game 2.
Let's not get it twisted, if Cobb doesn't have it, then Vogt won't hesitate to throw the bullpen for seven innings if needed. That's not ideal, though.
The Tigers' strikeout woes against Cleveland starters is nothing new since it punched out 26% of the time in September, which ranked third worst in baseball.
I tabbed Cobb's strikeout total as 3.5 before the official line dropped. I like the over there, so I decided to grab his 4+ alt strikeout line rather than chasing the juice on 2.5.
Cobb will likely need some chases from his sharp splitter that serves as his swing-and-miss pitch off his sinker.
Tigers vs Guardians Parlay Leg 3
Steven Kwan to Record a Hit (-220)
Kwan is one of the premier bat-to-ball hitters in the sport, and he's returned to form of late.
The 2024 All-Star has recorded one hit or more in seven of his last eight games. As the Guardians' leadoff batter, Kwan will have plenty of chances to come to the dish, enhancing the chances of a potential hit.
I'd argue this is the safest hitter-related prop on the entire board. Of course, it makes sense since Kwan is -220 to collect a hit though the juice here is countered by the plus-money leg on Cobb.
