The AL Central has done a phenomenal job at shutting their detractors down, as one team from the division is a lock to play in the ALCS. That team will come from the winner of this series between the Cleveland Guardians (92-69) and Detroit Tigers (86-76).
First pitch is set for 1:10 PM ET, so let's get into my Guardians vs Tigers MLB parlay.
Guardians vs Tigers Parlay Picks for ALDS Game 1
- Guardians ML (-148)
- Tanner Bibee 7+ strikeouts (+140)
- Under 0.5 runs first inning (-145)
Parlay Odds: +490 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Moneyline
Guardians ML (-148)
As usual, if you're a regular reader of my SGP picks, then you know a pick for the game is the first leg.
I think Cleveland has more value as -148 favorites at home. It went 7-6 against the Tigers in the regular season but didn’t play them again after the trade deadline. So, it didn’t face the current iteration of the scrappy Tigers, who scratched and clawed to the ALDS.
I also took a peek at two trends to help confirm my thoughts: The Guardians went 50-30 at home this year and went 63-35 as favorites. I felt pretty strongly about Cleveland's chances of winning, but its success in home games sealed the deal.
I’m looking at Cleveland’s offense as a sizable advantage over the Detroit offense. Entering September, the Guardians hadn’t hit for well over a month, but finishing September with a 100 wRC+ is a pretty decent high note based on how dire the offense looked in August.
Plus, Detroit's approach of utilizing their dominant bullpen to stifle opponents looks very familiar in Cleveland. It's the classic cliche of "anything you can do, I can do better" for the Guardians in this series.
The game plan for Cleveland's pitcher have been simple this year: get past the fifth inning and the bullpen will finish the job for the final four innings. It has the best closer in baseball with Emmanuel Clase, two of the better set-up arms in Cade Smith and Hunter Gattis and a dynamic lefty in Tim Herrin.
The thing is, Tanner Bibee is the one pitcher the Guardians can rely on for five or six dominant innings before handing it off to the best trio of relievers on the planet.
Tanner Bibee Prop
7+ Strikeouts (+140)
We got a glimpse of how the Tigers' offense fares against strikeout pitchers when Hunter Brown shut down their offense for nearly six innings with nine strikeouts. I’m expecting a similar outing from Bibee, who posted a slightly stronger K/9 than Brown at 9.69 compared to 9.48. The difference is minuscule, but Bibee can use his dynamic stuff to tally punchouts.
I wanted to target a plus money option for one leg of this SGP, which is partially why taking Bibee for seven strikeouts got the nod over his regular O5.5 total. I thought his number would land at 6.5. So, grabbing 7+ strikeouts is a strong play to me, considering the Tigers ranked third worst in MLB with a 26% K-rate in September.
Reintroducing Spencer Torkleson into the lineup presents one of the more strikeout-prone hitters in the sport. Torkelson is one of many Tigers hitters with strikeout problems. He headlines a list that features 10 other teammates who strike out 24% of the time or more.
The only player on Detroit's postseason roster who punches out less than 22% of the time is starting third baseman Zach McKinstry, whose 10% K rate adds a little more bat-to-ball skills than most of the lineup.
First Inning Runline
Under 0.5 Runs (-145)
This one worked in the final game of the Wild Card series between the Astros & and Tigers, so I’m running it back once again with no runs in the first inning.
Southpaw opener Tyler Holton takes the ball for the Tigers, just like in the Wild Card clinching game. Hinch has used this unconventional path to the playoffs, and it continues to work, so there's no reason to stop going to the well.
Holton should skate through the first inning with relative ease, considering he’s allowed just four earned runs in his past 45 1/3 innings. I was mildly worried that Reese Olson would start from the first inning, so I'm thankful Hinch stuck to his guns and went with the always-reliable Holton.
Some pitchers struggle early in games, but that’s not the case for Bibee. He allowed a run just twice in the first inning of his past ten outings. That’s a strong percentage for the Guardians ace. I feel very comfortable in assuming Bibee leaves the first inning unscathed, giving way for the Tigers to hold the Guardians scoreless for a clean first-inning cover.
I love the idea of securing a leg of the SGP in the first inning, so let’s add this one to the mix.
