Tigers vs Guardians Odds: Moneyline Prediction (5/7)
| Detroit Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Cleveland Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -142 |
The Cleveland Guardians are on a tear in the AL Central. Logan Allen will throw for them on Tuesday against Kenta Maeda and the Detroit Tigers.
Allen has been a bit of a letdown as his peripherals are not encouraging. However, his xERA is much lower than his actual ERA, which should mean some positive regression is headed his way.
Maeda has not permitted much hard contact, but his expected numbers are not encouraging.
That said, neither of these teams has been too sharp against the type of pitcher they will face. While Cleveland has not hit righties well, the Tigers have a few weapons in the lineup against lefties.
Will that give Detroit a leg up? Let's preview this AL Central clash and make a Tigers vs Guardians prediction.
Detroit Tigers
Maeda has a 5.02 ERA against a 4.73 xERA. However, his Average Exit Velocity is only 87.4 MPH. He has been better in his last two outings, only allowing one earned run over 11 innings while striking out 10. Limiting hard contact has been the name of his game overall this year with a 34.8% Hard Hit Rate.
The Tigers have a collective 85 wRC+ off lefties. They do not walk very much either at only 6.7%. However, they have six bats with a .320+ xwOBA off southpaws. Matt Vierling and Mark Canha are both above .400, so those are two names to watch out for against Allen.
The Tigers only have two arms below a 4.00 xFIP in relief, so this is not the most lockdown relief staff. That being said, Joey Wentz has been a great long relief option, and Jason Foley, aside from his last appearance, has been reliable at the back end. Alex Lange and Will Vest have potential to hold down the fort, as well. They should have a few options on the back of a decent Maeda start, if he limits walks.
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Cleveland Guardians
Logan Allen owns a 5.11 ERA against a 4.14 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 89.6 MPH, though, and his Hard Hit Rate and Barrel Rate are also below average. He does not walk many batters, but his strikeout rate is pretty low too. Needless to say, Allen does not have as many strong signals as Maeda tends to have.
The Guardians have a 98 wRC+ off righties. They only strike out 19.3% of the time with an 8.2% walk rate, and their .680 OPS shows they do not have much power either. Cleveland called up Kyle Manzardo because Steven Kwan hit the Injured List. Otherwise, the Guardians have four others above a .320 xwOBA. Yes, Maeda is not the most dominant pitcher, but the edge should go to the Tigers with a deeper lineup against a lefty.
In relief, the Guardians are much better than the Tigers. Cleveland has a 3.22 xFIP in over 134 innings. The bullpen rarely walks hitters, while boasting a strikeout rate over 28%. Pair this with several arms below a 4.00 xFIP, and you can see why they are one of the best teams in the American League.
Tigers vs. Guardians
Betting Pick & Prediction
At the end of the day, Maeda should be able to log five strong innings against a Cleveland batting order that lacks some pop and has not crushed righties. He will limit walks and needs to continue limiting hard hits. Luckily for him, Cleveland ranks second-to-last in Hard Hit Rate in MLB.
Allen is not much to write home about, so the veterans in the Detroit lineup at the top of the order should take advantage. Bet the Tigers in this game from +108 to -115.
