Tigers vs. Rangers Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+168 | 9 -106 / -114 | +1.5 -115 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-200 | 9 -106 / -114 | -1.5 -104 |
The Texas Rangers will look to extend their 5 1/2-game lead in the AL West as they host the lowly Detroit Tigers for a four-game set.
The series opener features Matthew Boyd (5.47 ERA in 70 1/3 innings) against Andrew Heaney (3.98 ERA in 72 1/3 innings), and oddsmakers have priced the Rangers as greater than -200 favorites.
Let's break down Tigers vs. Rangers and see where the betting value lies on Monday night.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers enter this series in solid form, having won six of their last 10 games. Over the last five series' they have averaged 4.5 runs per game, and have put up a wRC+ of 107 with a .323 wOBA. They have struck out 22.2% of the time in 598 PAs.
Those are middle-of-the-pack numbers, which is quite an accomplishment considering where this offencs has been the last two seasons.
Detroit has fared considerably better versus left-handed pitching this season. The Tigers own a wRC+ of 94, and an elite BB/K of 0.42.
Boyd has also been somewhat less awful in the month of June with an ERA of 4.91 and a WHIP of 1.14 in 22 2/3 IP. Over the last 100 PAs his xwOBA has improved and his xERA on the season is now down to to 4.02.
Boyd's Stuff+ rating comes in at 86, and he was never going to be a candidate to find better than league average results. Even still, his 61.7% LOB rate and .302 BABIP are on the unlucky end of the spectrum, and have been key factors in his dreadful ERA.
With runners on base this season, opponents have a ground ball batting average 0f .353 versus Boyd. Considering his xBA, that is quite an unlucky clip, and Boyd appears likely for some positive regression on that front.
There may not be any logical causation that dictates this trend should continue, but Boyd has found drastically better results on the road this season with a 3.44 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 36 2/3 IP.
Texas Rangers
While Boyd is might be somewhat better than his overall numbers suggest, Heaney is likely a little worse, and he has had a rough go of it lately. Heaney has pitched to a 4.67 ERA in the month of June, with a sky-high WHIP of 1.73.
His expected rates have risen over that time, and he now owns an xERA of 4.61 with a xFIP of 4.46.
Heaney has thrown to a Stuff+ rating of 99, with a Location+ of 98.
Heaney has thrown elevated fastballs 66% of the time this season, which is the fifth-highest mark in MLB among pitchers with over 30 IP. Since 2021, his elevated fastballs have not fared well, as batters own a hard-hit rate of 48%.
The Rangers have been the second most potent team versus LHP this season, and should have all of their key pieces available tonight. They have hit to a wRC+ of 129 a wOBA .356 across 801 PAs.
Tigers vs. Rangers Betting Pick
It's not fun to bet on Boyd and the Tigers, but at a price of +170 to win the first five innings in this matchup the situation calls for it.
Detroit has been finding far better results at the plate the last two weeks, and is playing better baseball altogether. The Tigers have been less pathetic in splits versus left-handed pitching this season as well.
Boyd has fared more respectably in the month of June, with a far lower WHIP and improved ERA. Heaney has been heading in the opposite direction himself, and offers comparable recent results to Boyd.
There are some avenues for Detroit to hang around in this matchup, and +170 is too long of a number considering the recent form of these teams and pitchers.
