Tigers vs. Rangers Odds, Pick
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7.5 -124o / 102u | -108 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 7.5 -124o / 102u | -108 |
The Rangers' offense will look to get right after a disappointing 2-1 loss in the series opener. Finding a better result won't be easy for Texas though, as the Tigers will send Jack Flaherty to the mound, who owns an xERA of just 2.53 this season. Flaherty will be opposed by Dane Dunning, who has overachieved expectations in posting a 3.94 ERA thus far.
Detroit Tigers
Tigers GM Jeff Greenberg's one year bet on Jack Flaherty in free agency looks like a pretty excellent deal at this point, and the team will now have a tough decision to make at the deadline if no extension is signed.
After taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning versus Boston, and finishing with zero earned runs in six and two-thirds, Flaherty enters this matchup with an ERA of just 3.46. He owns an xFIP of just 2.03, and has struck-out 34% of batters faced this season. He owns a Stuff+ rating of 97, and Location+ rating of 103.
Flaherty's 35.2% whiff-rate is the best mark among qualified starters this season. In matchups coming third time through the order, Flaherty is generating a 34% whiff-rate, which is second to only Grayson Rodriguez.
The Tigers' offence enters this matchup on a strong run of play versus right-handed pitchers. They own a wRC+ of 109 over the last month against right-handed pitching. They have still struck-out 24.3% of the time versus righties in that span though, and own the second lowest BB/K in that span at 0.32.
Detroit's offensive upside versus righties also takes a significant hit with Kerry Carpenter out of the lineup. Carpenter owns a .636 slug-rate and 1.004 OPS (7th best in MLB) across 145 PA's versus right-handed pitchers this season.
Texas Rangers
Dunning does appear to be overachieving most underlying indicators with his 3.94 ERA. He owns an xERA of 5.10 and an xFIP of 3.68. He owns a Stuff+ rating of only 85, and a Location+ rating of 95.
While Dunning does appear to be an obvious regression candidate, he has pitched to better underlying results recently. Over his last four outings, Dunning has reduced his hard-hit rate to 40% while raising his strikeout rate up to 32% and reducing his walk-rate to 8%.
The Rangers offense has hit to a wRC+ of only 98 versus right-handed pitching over the last month, with an OPS of .695. Their 0.54 BB/K ranks third in that period though, and they hold a BABIP of just .272.
Evan Carter remains on the 10-day IL with back tightness.
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Tigers vs. Rangers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Flaherty's underlying profile suggests he can remain one of the AL's better starters the rest of the way, and he will offer a tough matchup to the Rangers high powered offense. What could potentially be a little overvalued is the Tigers offense, particularly with Carpenter sidelined versus a righty in Dunning.
While Dunning may not be quite as strong as his 3.94 ERA suggests, his underlying profile has improved considerably since the early part of the season. So while he looked to be a pure a regression candidate in the early going, he now looks to be pitching at a slightly higher level.
The Tigers have struck out a lot versus right-handed pitching recently, and feature a number of batters that have not displayed overly strong plate discipline. Dunning has elevated his K-rate to 32% over a five start sample, and now gets a plus matchup to generate K's. There is value betting Dunning to record Over 5.5 strikeouts at +125.
