We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough that I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
So far this season, I'm 56-37 betting Triple-A baseball, good for +38.93 units of profit.
Gwinnett Stripers @ Durham Bulls
Tuesday, 6:45 PM ET
Durham has been the biggest beneficiary of the First Half-Second Half Minor League Baseball system to this point. Durham had a terrible first half but has been the best team in the International League since the second half started, sitting 18-7 and on top of the standings despite a 46-54 overall record.
I forecasted that hot start here, as I felt like Durham’s roster got better and the Bulls had plenty of pitching, but now I think the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction.
Durham didn’t just become an elite team overnight, and the Bulls have been without ace Ty Johnson as the Rays pulled him to put him on the development list, which means he’s probably doing some side work before ultimately being called up to the Rays.
Gwinnett has the better roster right now and a couple of weeks ago would have been much bigger favorites in this series, so I think we can find some Stripers value at the DBAP this week.
I will be looking for spots to back Gwinnett based on pitching.
The Gwinnett lineup has some names, but it’s serviceable at best, though probably comparable to the lineup Durham has been going with while Jacob Melton has been out again with injury.
What Gwinnett suddenly has again is pitching. Herick Hernandez was one of Atlanta’s best Double-A prospects, and he’s been called up while guys like JR Ritchie and Lucas Braun are back at Gwinnett and AJ Smith-Shawyver and Hurston Waldrep continue to work starts as part of their MLB rehab. Owen Murphy is having a really good season at the Triple-A level as well, and there aren’t enough starts to go around if Gwinnett has to accommodate rehabbing starting pitchers, so you could see some of Gwinnett’s better arms get bumped to a bullpen role this week.
I haven’t been in love with the Gwinnett lineup, but Patrick Clohisy has been a revelation since being called up to Triple-A.
I think Gwinnett has enough juice right now to have a strong showing in Durham this week.
Pick: Gwinnett Stripers ML (-135, bet365)
Reno Aces @ Round Rock Express
Tuesday, 7:45 PM ET
I think Reno is going to have too much firepower for Round Rock to overcome, and this series is at Dell Diamond, so we might get some playable prices on the visitors here.
At a high level, you have a Reno team that has the offense but hasn’t had much pitching this season, while Round Rock has had one of the worst lineups in the PCL all year but has gotten by with a respectable staff and solid bullpen.
I would say those two things cancel out, and this is an even matchup, but I think Reno has upgraded their pitching enough the past couple of weeks where it’s now closer to Round Rock in that regard.
Jose Cabrera is back at Reno and has been solid at Triple-A, while Ashton Izzi was recently called up and looks like he will be one of the better starters on this Reno staff. Jonatan Bernal is having a good season out of the bullpen.
Plus, depending on what the Diamondbacks need, you could always see Mitch Bratt or Kohl Drake get sent down and make a start for Reno, which further bolsters the Reno rotation and the Aces' edge in Round Rock this week.
While it’s not an elite staff, there are still more redeeming qualities for Reno pitching than there were earlier this season.
Finally, Reno has seen a number of guys having great seasons at Double-A recently called up, and it’s probably only a matter of time before some or all get going. Manuel Pena is a monster and one of the highest upside guys currently at Triple-A, while LuJames Groover has been a beast when at Triple-A this season. Danny Serretti and Gavin Conticello both recently came up from Amarillo, and both have over 1.000 OPS since joining the Aces.
The perception is these two teams are even, but I think Reno is the better team with more upside.
Pick: Reno Aces ML (-125, bet365)
Las Vegas Aviators @ Oklahoma City Comets
Tuesday, 8:05 PM ET
I’ve been consistently fading Oklahoma City, but I think I’ll buy back on the Comets in this spot.
Las Vegas enters this week with a 17-10 second-half record, but I think that’s about to change, as the roster has been decimated by call-ups. The A’s have had injury after injury, which means most of the best Aviators are MLB-bound.
Vegas overcame that issue last week against a poor El Paso team, but I don’t think it will against an ultimately better-than-average Oklahoma City squad, and I’m happy to fade the Aviators as road favorites.
Neither of these teams has much pitching, so it’ll likely come down to which side hits better, and I believe that will be the Comets, who have the much better lineup right now.
Pick: Oklahoma City Comets ML (+100, bet365)
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Tuesday
- Gwinnett Stripers ML (-135, bet365)
- Reno Aces ML (-125, bet365)
- Oklahoma City Comets ML (+100, bet365)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A Baseball
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
