The Washington Nationals and Minnesota Twins will finish their three-game series in the nation's capital on Wednesday afternoon at 1:05 p.m. ET. The hometown Nationals took the first game, and the Twins cruised to an easy win in the second game, which means Wednesday's matchup will decide the series.
A pair of largely unknown starters who have performed well in Simeon Woods-Richardson for the Twins and Jake Irvin for the Nationals will square up in the rubber match as the Twins are short favorites on the moneyline at -135.
Can Woods-Richardson continue his strong rookie season, or will the overachieving Nationals bounce back for the series victory over their AL Central foes?
Here's my Twins vs Nationals same game parlay for Wednesday.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
MLB Same Game Parlay: Twins vs. Nationals
- Nationals Moneyline +118
- Jake Irvin 5+ Strikeouts (-108)
- Jacob Young to Steal a Base (+235)
Parlay Odds: +862 (FanDuel)
Nationals Moneyline +118
The first leg of the SGP is the Nationals at +118 to beat the Twins and win the series.
Why am I backing the Nationals just one night after the Twins totally dominated them on Tuesday? It's a fair question. I'm leaning into regression for a pitcher who probably isn't as strong as the basic numbers indicate.
It's tough to tell if Woods-Richardson is actually a 3.00 ERA pitcher, or if regression awaits. I lean toward the latter because Woods-Richardson has an xFIP of 4.04 and a 3.92 xERA compared to his 2.97 ERA. I will fade the rookie as teams gather more information and film on his tendencies.
The 23-year-old rookie averages 93 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball, which he throws 40.6% of the time. He's also a fly-ball pitcher who has allowed 0.57 HR/9.
You can grab the Nationals at +118 on the moneyline, and I'd take them down to -110. I could see the Nationals' four premier left-handed bats — CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia, Jesse Winker and Eddie Rosario — making Woods-Richardson work for every out.
Another positive in the Nationals favor is the tandem of Hunter Harvey and Kyle Finnegan in the eighth and ninth innings. Those two have regularly shut down teams in late innings, yet it doesn't feel they get the proper attention as one of the best late-inning duos in baseball.
Jake Irvin 5+ Strikeouts (-108)
The Twins offense, known for its swing-and-miss tendency, ranks eighth with a 23.7% Strikeout Rate. Rocco Baldelli changes the lineup based on the pitcher's handedness, often resulting in a left-handed heavy lineup against right-handers, who strike out often.
Trevor Larnach, Alex Kiriloff and Edouard Julien, three of the platoon hitters, strike out at least 23% of the time. Irvin is a strike-throwing machine, which should get him into two-strike counts with a chance to put hitters away quickly.
Seeing Irvin carve out a legitimate role in the Nationals rotation has been great. He owns a 3.91 ERA with positive future indicators — 3.33 FIP and 3.82 xFIP — so his early season success likely continues. He's not a star by any means, but he's a reliable starter who can pitch deep into games, and providing length bodes well for getting some punch-outs needed for this SGP.
Jacob Young to Steal a Base (+235)
If you want to take a shot on one of the fastest players in baseball to steal a base at plus money, here's a great flier to enhance your SGP. Jacob Young ranks in the 97th percentile in sprint speed, and his great bat-to-ball skills complement his quickness.
Young gets on base at a .313 clip against right-handed pitchers like Woods-Richardson. Drawing walks is a part of Young's offensive attack, so he's a threat to get on base, even if he doesn't get a hit.
The Nationals speedster has already stolen 15 bases and is a threat to go every time he reaches first base. That's worth a chance.
It's the ideal final leg to round out the perfect SGP with pretty strong odds.
