Twins vs. Red Sox Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -109 | 8.5 -122 / +100 | -1.5 +150 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -112 | 8.5 -122 / +100 | +1.5 -182 |
The Red Sox enter this series opener after taking three out of four games from the Angels. It's safe to say they have enjoyed cooking at home, but now they'll face a Twins club that has shown they can win games in a variety of ways.
Minnesota has shown that it has all the tools to be a complete team. It has power and speed offensively, along with great pitching. Tonight, we'll see its ace in Sonny Gray, whose arsenal adjustments have produced fantastic results thus far.
However, Boston will have an ace of its own on the mound. Chris Sale has yet to regain his old form, and while he's due for some positive regression, it remains to be seen if it will begin tonight.
So, which side should you bet in this series opener? Let's take a closer look to find out.
Minnesota Twins
Sixteen genes into the season, and the Twins' lineup is sitting in the middle of the pack. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have led the way, but they need more contributions if they're going to outslug the Red Sox in this matchup. Fortunately for them, there are quite a few players who are in great spots.
This Twins lineup will be up against a lefty in Sale, who has been knocked around in three starts this season. He enters this outing with an 11.25 ERA, and his Baseball Savant rankings are ocean blue.
Minnesota has the second-lowest number of plate appearances against left-handed pitching, but it has several batters who have found success against lefties. Jose Miranda has an ISO of .220 against lefties, Michael A. Taylor's batting average is over 20 points higher against lefties, and Donovan Solano has been raking thus far with better career splits against left-handers.
Sale's only success this season has come from generating swings and misses, so this lineup will be a challenge from top to bottom. While the Twins do have the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the majors, they will make Sale pay for any mistakes.
Boston Red Sox
We go from one starter who has struggled in the early going to one who has thrived thus far. Sonny Gray comes into this start with a 0.53 ERA and one of the best pitching performances of the season against the Astros.
The biggest difference-maker for Gray has been the increased usage of his breaking pitches. Through three starts, Gray has thrown his curveball and slider more than any other, and the results have been excellent.
Those two pitches have BAA's of .188 and .071, respectively. Last season, Gray was fastball-heavy, but he's thrown his four-seam just 15% of the time this season.
The newly-reinvented Gray will face a Boston lineup that has yet to show consistency. It enters this matchup with the seventh-lowest xBA in the majors and ranks middle-of-the-pack in nearly every other category.
In addition to their overall inconsistency, the Red Sox have not hit breaking pitches very well thus far. Only Rafael Devers has an xBA above .300 against curveball, and only Verdugo and Turner have xBAs over .300 against sliders.
Twins vs. Red Sox Betting Pick
The name recognition of these two starters has made the lines for this matchup relatively close. However, a deeper look shows that there's a significant disparity between these two teams.
Minnesota is a team built to hit lefties. It will stack righties tonight against Sale and do damage if it can lay backfoot sliders.
On the other side, Gray's arsenal will give the Red Sox fits. Boston has struggled mightily against breaking pitches and will have to contend with an excellent bullpen once Gray exits.
Back the Twins to take this matchup.
Pick: Twins -105 |
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