Twins vs Royals Predictions, Odds
| Minnesota Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-160 | 8.5 +100o /-120u | -1.5 +135 |
| Kansas City Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
+135 | 8.5 +100o /-120u | +1.5 -155 |
Twins vs Royals odds have the Twins as -160 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (+100o /-120u) for the Thursday afternoon game at Target Field.
A pair of right-handers are set to square off as Chris Paddack is slated to take the mound for Minnesota against Kansas City's Brady Singer.
For my Twins vs Royals pick and prediction, I will be looking at the total.
Minnesota Twins
It's been a difficult start to the campaign for Paddack, who possesses a 4.39 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP through his first 10 starts. Moving forward, positive regression is unlikely for the right-hander, at least based on his underlying metrics.
Paddack ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. However, it will help his cause that he's likely to get a good amount of run support Minnesota's lineup.
The Twins rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS and home runs this season. That success is likely to continue against Singer, a pitcher whom Minnesota's current lineup boasts a .299 BA, a .538 SLG and a .395 wOBA against through 133 combined career plate appearances.
Kansas City Royals
Singer is the reason why this total is set at eight with the over returning +100. He has been fantastic this season, posting a 4-2 record with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP through 11 starts.
However, that presents us with what should be a good sell-high opportunity on a pitcher outperforming his analytics. Singer ranks in the 40th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
That expected regression is likely to come to fruition against Minnesota, a team he is 3-6 against through 12 career meetings with a fade-worthy 5.18 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. With that said, run support should help out Singer.
The middle of Kansas City's lineup has been dominant, especially the production from Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez. Those two have led this team to rank in the top 10 in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and stolen bases.
Twins vs. Royals
Betting Pick & Prediction
Given that Singer is the main reason this total is only at eight, I like the over. Not only is he due for regression, but he has also struggled mightily against the Twins throughout his career.
If Singer is chased early, I have little faith in the Royals' bullpen. This season, Kansas City's relief pitching ranks 18th in ERA, 24th in FIP and last in xFIP.
Meanwhile, both lineups rank in the top half of the league in virtually every key hitting statistic. It's also supposed to be a moderately humid afternoon in Minnesota, which means the ball should fly around a bit more in this contest.
Pick: Over 8 (+100 at FanDuel | Play to -105)
