Twins vs. Tigers Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -166 | 8.5 -104 / -118 | -1.5 +100 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+140 | 8.5 -106 / -118 | +1.5 -120 |
The first installment of this four-game AL Central series gets underway Monday evening with the third-place Detroit Tigers hosting the first-place Minnesota Twins.
This is a crucial series for both teams, with Detroit starting to run out of time to mount a comeback in the divisional standings while Minnesota continues to fend off the Cleveland Guardians for first place. Will the Twins take care of business, or can the Tigers pull off the upset on their home diamond?
Here's a look at the odds and my Twins vs. Tigers betting pick and prediction.
Minnesota Twins
Right-hander Pablo Lopez takes the mound for Minnesota and should be a good candidate to back in this matchup. Through 22 starts this season, Lopez is 6-6 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
While those are not the most dominant surface-level stats, his underlying metrics suggest that a return to status quo is looming. Currently, the right-hander ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in Average Exit Velocity, xERA/xwOBA, xBA and xSLG.
This positive regression has started to come to fruition recently, with Lopez posting a 2.50 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over his past three starts.
Specifically, we're going to back Lopez in the strikeout department. This year, he ranks in 74th percentile or higher in K%, Whiff% and Chase Rate, and that same dominance is likely to continue against Detroit.
Detroit Tigers
The first half of the season went above expectations for the Tigers, who were firmly involved in the race for first place of the weak AL Central. However, regression has hit this club hard over the past month, which is primarily a product of their poor hitting.
This year, Detroit ranks in the bottom five of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs. The Tigers also struggle to avoid strikeouts.
When facing right-handed pitching this season, Detroit ranks 24th in the league in K%. Looking at Monday's projected starting lineup, five of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 23% this year.
Twins vs. Tigers Betting Pick
Detroit's strikeout woes are likely to continue against Lopez. In his lone career start against the Tigers earlier this season, the right-hander surrendered three runs on seven hits while collecting 10 strikeouts.
The current iteration of this Detroit lineup owns a fade-worthy 37.1 K% and 28.4 Whiff% through 35 career plate appearances against Lopez. Yes, 7.5 is a pretty large number to surpass, but that is why we are catching plus-money.
Finally, the right-hander has collected eight or more strikeouts in five of his past nine starts.
Pick: Pablo Lopez Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+118 | Play up to +100) |
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