Twins vs. Tigers Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -162 | 8.5 -112 / -108 | -1.5 +114 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+136 | 8.5 -112 / -108 | +1.5 -137 |
The third installment of this four-game AL Central series gets underway Wednesday evening with the third-place Detroit Tigers hosting the first-place Minnesota Twins.
These teams split the first two meetings of this series, with Minnesota winning the opener, 9-3, and Detroit coming back with a 6-0 victory in last night's contest.
Will the Twins take back control of this series, or can the Tigers defend their home diamond once again?
Here's a look at the odds and my Twins vs. Tigers betting pick and prediction.
Minnesota Twins
Right-hander Bailey Ober takes the mound for Minnesota and should be a good candidate to back in this matchup. Through 18 starts this season, Ober is 6-5 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.
Not only are his surface-level stats strong, but his underlying metrics suggest that regression is unlikely. Currently, the right-hander ranks in the 60th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA and xBA.
Specifically, we're going to back Ober in the strikeout department. This year, he ranks in the 53rd percentile in K%, 61st percentile in Whiff% and 93rd percentile in Chase Rate.
This strikeout success is likely to continue against Detroit.
Detroit Tigers
The first half of the season went above expectations for the Tigers, who were firmly involved in the race for first place in the weak AL Central.
However, regression has hit this club hard over the past month, which is primarily a product of its poor hitting.
This year, Detroit ranks in the bottom five of the league in runs scored per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs. The Tigers also struggle to avoid strikeouts.
When facing right-handed pitching this season, Detroit ranks 24th in the league in K%.
Looking at Monday's projected starting lineup, five of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 23% this year.
Twins vs. Tigers Betting Pick
Detroit's strikeout woes are likely to continue against Ober. In his start against the Tigers earlier this season, the right-hander surrendered three runs on five hits while collecting eight strikeouts.
The current iteration of this Detroit lineup owns a fade-worthy 30.4 K% and 37.2 Whiff% through 46 career plate appearances against Ober.
Currently, you can find Ober's strikeout prop at 5.5 with plus-money on the over at FanDuel.
Ober has collected six or more strikeouts in 10 of his past 17 starts.
