The Milwaukee Brewers host the Washington Nationals on July 11, 2025. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MASN2.
Find my MLB betting preview and Nationals vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Nationals vs Brewers Prediction
- Nationals vs Brewers picks: Under 8.5 (-106 FanDuel)
My Nationals vs Brewers best bet is Under 8.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Brewers Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +101 | 8.5 -111o / -109u | +173 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -122 | 8.5 -111o / -109u | -207 |
Nationals vs Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers
| Mitchell Parker | Stat | Quinn Priester |
|---|---|---|
| 5-9 | W-L | 6-2 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 4.72 / 5.39 | ERA /xERA | 3.59 / 3.78 |
| 4.57 / 4.97 | FIP / xFIP | 4.21 / 3.88 |
| 1.38 | WHIP | 1.27 |
| 6.8% | K-BB% | 10.1% |
| 38.0% | GB% | 57.7% |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 102 | Location+ | 99 |
The Betting Insider’s Nationals vs Brewers Preview
Washington Nationals Betting Preview: Can Parker Limit Brewers?
The Nationals will hand the ball to Mitchell Parker, a pitch-to-contact lefty enduring a rocky sophomore season, but one who’s still shown glimpses of promise. Parker opened the year in impressive fashion, posting a 1.39 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP over his first five starts. Since then, however, the wheels have come off as he’s managed just two quality starts over his past 12 outings. That said, he hasn’t had an easy road as recent matchups include the Diamondbacks, Braves (twice), Mets and Mariners — all dangerous offenses. He now draws a Brewers lineup that’s cooled off considerably after a red-hot June, ranking just 22nd in wRC+ over the past week.
Parker enters Friday’s start with a 5-9 record, a 4.72 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP across just under 100 innings. He doesn’t miss many bats — his strikeout rate sits around 17% — and his slightly elevated walk rate often leads to traffic, but Parker’s strength lies in his ability to sequence pitches and avoid blow-up innings when he’s locating well. He mixes a low-90s fastball with a slider, curve, and splitter, relying more on deception and timing than velocity. We’re not expecting a gem — just enough poise to limit the damage and keep the game within reach.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Priester Throwing Well
Opposing him is Quinn Priester, one of the more underrated arms in Milwaukee’s rotation this season. Priester’s surface numbers don’t immediately grab attention, but his recent form has been excellent. After struggling out of the gate — posting a 4.66 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP and a 5.1 BB/9 through his first eight starts — he’s turned a major corner. Over his past eight outings, Priester owns a 2.66 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and an impressive 2.93 xFIP, while slashing his walk rate to just 1.6 BB/9. He also ranks in the top 2% of qualified starters in ground-ball rate and has done a much better job limiting hard contact since the start of June.
Though Priester’s last outing was a bit shaky — four earned runs over 4 2/3 innings against a surging Braves offense — his overall body of work remains strong. He’s been particularly dominant at home, where he sports a 3.03 ERA and has held opponents to a minuscule .183 batting average.
Nationals vs Brewers Prediction, Betting Analysis
This pitching matchup might not grab headlines, but this has all the makings of a tightly contested, low-scoring affair. Both starters are capable of suppressing damage, and with the Brewers cooling off and Parker drawing a favorable run environment, the conditions are ripe for a slower-paced game.
The Betting Insiders have multiple profitable long-term systems active in this spot, all pointing toward the same side: the Under.
System 1: Home streaking favorites off extended rest (67% win rate, 28% ROI)
Home team favored up to -235
Home team has had between 2 and 5 days off
The home team has played at least their last 3 games at home
The under is receiving no more than 40% of public bets
Total between 5 and 9
System 2: Heavy home favorites that tend to go under, fair weather (65% win rate, 24% ROI)
Home team favored, ML is at least -135
Home team’s season long over% is no higher than 45%
Wind is not blowing out
Wind speed is below 10 mph
No more than 50% of bets on the under
No later than game #110
Since 2023
System 3: Very against the public, home team recently going under (64% win rate, 22% ROI)
Home team has gone under in at least 3 out of their last 5
Total between 6.5 and 9.5
The under is receiving less than 30% of public bets
The total did not move up from open
Wind not blowing out
Since 2020
Pick: Under 8.5
Moneyline
I will not be betting either side of the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also staying away from the run line.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I am backing the Under 8.5.
Nationals vs Brewers Betting Trends
Nationals vs Brewers Weather
