The Washington Nationals (68-81) and New York Mets (81-68) continue their crucial NL east series on Tuesday night at Citi Field. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MASN and SNY, and can also be streamed on MLB.TV.
The Mets managed to take care of business in the series opener, triumphing by the score of 2-1 in extra innings. The victory gave them sole possession of the final NL wild-card spot with the Atlanta Braves losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Nationals send left-hander Mitchell Parker to the mound on Tuesday; Mets right-hander Tylor Megill will oppose him. Can the Nats embrace the spoiler role on Tuesday, or will the Mets keep on rolling? Find my preview and Nationals vs Mets prediction for Tuesday, September 17, below.
Nationals-Mets Prediction
- Nationals-Mets picks: F5 Under 4.5 (-120)
My Nationals vs Mets best bet is on the F5 under 4.5, where I see value at -120. The best line is available at DraftKings — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Mets Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+138 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -154 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-164 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +128 |
Nationals-Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Mitchell Parker (WAS) | Stat | RHP Tylor Megill |
|---|---|---|
| 7-9 | W-L | 3-5 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 4.24 / 4.30 | ERA /xERA | 4.48 / 4.18 |
| 3.80 / 4.13 | FIP / xFIP | 3.52 / 3.92 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.32 |
| 14.5% | K-BB% | 17.4% |
| 37% | GB% | 38.6% |
| 88 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 100 | Location+ | 97 |
John Feltman’s Nationals-Mets Preview
Washington Nationals Betting Preview: Offense Takes Hit Without CJ Abrams
The Nationals have a bright future ahead, but these last couple of weeks could be a brutal stretch. Considering they are already out of the race, the Nats may take the opportunity to play an assortment of lineups to figure out what they have heading into the offseason.
CJ Abrams (shoulder) has not played the last few days, and it is unclear if the Nats will play it safe with him. If the severity is troublesome, I would be surprised to see Abrams in the lineup tonight. That is not good news for the offense, as he is critical to the top half of the order.
On Tuesday, they face Tylor Megill — current Nats hitters are just 7-for-31 lifetime against him as a team.
As a team, the Nationals offense has roughly the same batting average against lefties and righties, but without Abrams, it is tough to project how effective their offense can be. Their pitching did a great job of silencing the Met's bats last night, and they will need a similar performance from Mitchell Parker to give themselves a chance to win.
Parker has produced a high chase rate to opposing hitters in 2024, but his strikeout numbers are lower. He is prone to allowing hard contact, but does an excellent job at limiting free passes.
The Mets offense has been in a funk the last couple of days, scoring only three runs in their previous two games. They've also struggled against Parker in 2024, batting .190 as a team.
The matchup against Tylor Megill may seem enticing due to his high WHIP, but I believe Megill is due for good fortune moving forward.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Tylor Megill Has the Stuff
I am one to believe that Tylor Megill would be an elite closer, and that is not a hyperbole. Megill's metrics suggest he has the arsenal to be a shutdown closer, but his high walk rate is consistently giving him issues.
Megill enters Tuesday with a 4.18 xERA, but he ranks above the 65th percentile in the following metrics:
- Fastball Velo
- Chase Rate
- Whiff Rate
- Strikeout Rate
His 73 Ks in 62 1/3 innings is impressive, but when he is not missing bats, it has caused him issues. Megill ranks below the 20th percentile in hard-hit rate and barrel rate. He has excellent numbers against the Nats hitters in the past, so he is set up to have a strong start. As long as he limits the walks, I expect Megill to pitch deep into the game.
On offense, the Mets have been a strange team all season. There are days when they look like they are amongst the best in baseball, and then there are times they look completely lifeless.
The offense could be better at home than on the road, and they could have better numbers against Parker. The lineup should eventually break out of their slump, but it may not come until late in the game.
Nationals at Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
We are rolling the dice a bit with Parker and Megill in the early going, but I really like the F5 Under tonight. The biggest key to this play is both starting pitchers limiting hard contact.
Megill has control issues, but his past success against the Nats gives me confidence that he can keep that rolling on Tuesday night. He is also facing a much weaker Nats lineup without CJ Abrams.
The Mets offense could be better at home, and Parker can toss zeroes across as he has in the past against New York. The Mets offense tends to struggle in the early portion of the game, so we are rolling the dice that Megill has his good stuff tonight.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-120)
Moneyline
I do not see much value on the moneyline, as I believe the Mets are in position to win tonight. The Mets are -164 on the moneyline, and that is a bit too steep of a price considering how low the total is. However, I am definitely interested in sprinkling the run line.
Moneyline pick: Pass
Run Line (Spread)
I like the Mets tonight -1.5 (+132), as I think that is good value. Although the total is low, it is far better value than laying the -165 on the moneyline.
Run Line Pick: Mets -1.5 (+132)
Over/Under
If the Mets win tonight, it’s going to be because of a dominant performance by Tylor Megill. I spoke about Megill above, but his metrics suggest he is capable of being a dominant pitcher. The Nationals offense is currently missing CJ Abrams, which is a big blow to the top of the order. The Mets bullpen has been solid lately, so I expect them to shutdown any offensive threat by the Nats late in the game.
Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-105)
Nationals vs Mets Betting Trends
- 86% of the bets and 98% of the money are on the Mets moneyline.
- 80% of the bets and 68% of the money are on the over (7.5).
- 92% of the bets and 97% of the money are on the Mets to cover the run line.
Nationals Betting Trends
- Nationals are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- Nationals are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Nationals are 43-32 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Nationals' last 5 games
Mets Betting Trends
- Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Mets' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Mets' 75 last games at home
