White Sox vs. Braves Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+235 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 +118 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -290 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 -142 |
In what might be the toughest matchup in baseball — versus Spencer Strider (3.44 ERA, 104 2/3 IP) and the 61-29 Braves — Lance Lynn (6.03, 103 IP) will look to kick off the second half in better fashion after a disastrous start to the campaign.
Oddsmakers price the Braves as huge -290 favorites to take this one at Truist Park.
Chicago White Sox
In a lost season filled with a disappointments for the 38-55 White Sox, Lynn's 6.03 ERA across a hefty 103 innings has been one of the most significant letdowns.
Lynn's 22 home runs allowed are the most in baseball. His HR/FB of 20.8% is unsustainable, especially as most models still view him as an above-average pitcher. He owns a 104 Location+ rating and a Stuff+ of 93.
Seeing some positive regression closer to his career-average marks in terms of home runs allowed would quickly make Lynn an above-average arm again. Lynn's xFIP of 3.74 is a highly encouraging mark.
For nearly two seasons now, the White Sox have been an above-average side versus lefties, but near league-bottom versus right-handed pitching.
They'll be in their lesser split Saturday versus righty Strider. Chicago has hit to a wRC+ of 85 versus righties this season, with a strikeout rate of 22.3%.
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Atlanta Braves
Part of Lynn's recent struggles could also be credited to facing a tougher than average slate of opponents over his last seven outings.
Things won't get easier on that front versus the Braves, who own a 116 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching with a wOBA of .348.
Strider has snapped out of a small downswing nicely, with a 1.38 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in his last four starts. His Stuff+ rating is off the charts at 127, and he's located well with a Location+ rating of 105.
Opponents have owned a miss rate of 37% versus Strider since last season, which is the best mark in the league among pitchers to have thrown over 100 innings.
White Sox vs. Braves Betting Pick
Obviously the Braves deserve to be a heavy favorite in this matchup, but the price for the first five is a little too hefty, especially since Lynn should bounce back in the second half.
Anyway you want to look at it, he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball. Depending on what metrics you value, a case can be made that he'll even be a better than league average starter the rest of the way.
A strong performance from Lynn would give the White Sox an avenue to steal the first five innings versus Strider. We'll need to count on Chicago's abysmal offense to get some runs in versus a tough righty, but it's worth it at the hefty number of +230.
Anything better than +220 for Chicago to win the first five innings is a play for me.
Another angle to consider could be the Braves to stay under their first five inning team total of 2.5.
