White Sox vs. Dodgers Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+176 | 9 -102 / -120 | +1.5 -118 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-210 | 9 -102 / -120 | -1.5 -102 |
The Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers open up a three-game set in L.A. on Tuesday, with Lance Lynn taking on Tony Gonsolin.
The Dodgers are in a bit a trouble, having fallen to a full four games out of the division lead, with the Arizona Diamondbacks red hot and only increasing their lead in the NL West since taking over that lead about a week ago. The White Sox, on the other hand, have steadied the ship after a brutal 7-21 start, playing over .500 since, with a 22-17 record in the last 39 games.
Even with that being the case, the Dodgers have taken the lion's share of the money for Tuesday's game, with the line opening with the White Sox at +145 but moving hard in the opposite direction.
Let's look at why, and what angles can still be bet.
Chicago White Sox
Despite playing notably better in recent months, the White Sox still have a significant weakness: hitting against right-handed pitchers. The team's wRC+ of 82 against righties this season ranks 28th in all of baseball (and third best in the AL Central … stay golden, ALC), and while that number has improved a bit since their rough start, it hasn't been by much. They have a wRC+ of 87 since May 1, "good" for 26th in baseball.
Jake Burger is the only really plus-plus hitter against righties, with a wRC+ of 126, with three other lineup regulars over 100. Tim Anderson and Elvis Andrus have been especially rough, sporting a pair of wRC+s in the 50s, which is especially difficult to swallow with Anderson sitting atop the lineup most nights.
On the mound for the White Sox, Lance Lynn has seen his ERA jump noticeably this season after ending last season on a strong note. His 6.72 ERA is second-highest among qualified pitchers, and although his xFIP is a far more palatable 4.15, the complete story is still pretty damning. Lynn has consistently had a home run problem since coming to the American League, so I look far closer at his xERA (5.43) and FIP (5.30), which show him as one of the lesser pitchers in baseball.
Add in the fact that the wind is blowing out at Dodger Stadium tonight, and it looks like it could be a tough night for Lynn.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Speaking of said rough night, the Dodgers have the lineup to give it to him, with the fourth-best lineup against righties this season by wRC+. In fact, their entire roster vs. right-handed pitching is better than all but one batter the White Sox will send to the dish on Tuesday night.
Freddie Freeman has been scorching overall this season and leads the league in runs scored. In what should be an incredibly favorable matchup against Lynn and the White Sox bullpen, I'm looking at Freeman to score over 0.5 runs (-110) at DraftKings.
The trickier part of this betting equation is what to do with Dodgers starting pitcher Tony Gonsolin. The 29-year-old has only thrown a hair over 300 career major league innings, but he has shown a consistent ability to post a better ERA than his peripherals would suggest. His 2.47 ERA is not even in the same ballpark as his FIP (3.59) or xFIP (4.23).
That trend has continued this season, with his xERA, FIP, and xFIP ALL more than DOUBLE his ERA. Normally, this would be a hammer spot to fade for the impending regression, but as noted, he keeps doing this.
Now, it could certainly be the case that 300 innings still isn't enough of a sample to separate the signal from the noise and Gonsolin is much closer to the 4.23 ERA pitcher than 2.47 ERA pitcher that projection systems also seem to think. But I'm a little leery because it's five straight seasons (of small inning totals admittedly), so I'm going to just avoid this side of the bet entirely.
White Sox vs. Dodgers Betting Pick
With a whole half of the game being too scary to go near (Gonsolin's pitching), we have a limited amount of bets to make. My favorite is the one mentioned above: Freddie Freeman to score a run -110 at DraftKings.
If you do trust the peripherals to win out in the long run, the one way I like of fading Gonsolin on Tuesday is Burger to hit a home run +550 (DraftKings or PointsBet). He has hit a homer in around 27% of games this season, and he has earned every bit of his power breakout this season. His xSLG ranks in the top 4% of the league, thanks to a 52.9% hard hit ball rate.
With the wind blowing out as well, this is my second-favorite bet of the night.
Pick: Freddie Freeman to score a run -110; Jake Burger to homer +550
